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Forum - View topicNEWS: CDC Study on COVID-19: 'Evidence of Widespread Transmission Was Not Identified' at Anime NYC
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Blanchimont
 Posts: 3586 Location: Finland |
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It's not foolproof, but it clearly proves the measures work to prevent greater harm. |
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510
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Why don't they just require a negative test, with this kind of rules you can have covid and just spread it freely. It's the same where I'm from, 80% are vaccinated and spreading it like crazy, with numbers climbing ever higher. Vaccinated infected don't require negative test = free spread
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NeverConvex
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Nice to see an example where things seem to have clearly worked out well under a reasonable-ish policy (though I wonder if there are any major self-selection problems with the survey they sent out to respondents; mm, I guess I'd bet that people with COVID symptoms post-con would be more likely on average to report that, so maybe not in the problematic direction).
EDIT: also, success in controlling herd immunity here makes me wonder if my math was off when I've commented before that vaccination by itself doesn't currently seem sufficient to achieve herd immunity. I think I was only looking at the reduction in likelihood of a breakthrough-infected person to spread -- not accounting for the direct reduction in likelihood of getting (breakthrough)-infected in the first place. Haven't seen a good estimate of that, but after taking it into consideration, maybe the situation will look more optimistic.
I agree that it would be significantly safer to require vaccinated people to have a negative test, too -- and, actually, to require vaccinations as well (both of these requirements would, mostly independently, reduce expected number of viruses spread per person on average) -- but it seems like their combination of requirements did work this time, and didn't lead to exponential spread, given what the article reported. Last edited by NeverConvex on Sun Feb 20, 2022 9:34 am; edited 1 time in total |
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SrkSano
 Posts: 205 |
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The checking for proof of vaccination at this con was horrible.
On that Friday there was a crazy long line to get in outside. Eventually someone opened a door that was next to me while I was on line and started letting people in. I have my vaccination pass on my smartphone app but it was turned off. The person handing out the wrist bands that showed proof that you were vaccinated, just handed me a wrist band and lots of other people without checking. I still waited fot my phone to turn on to show my pass, but I did not have to. A friend of mine arrived so late on a Saturday that they didn't even bother asking him for proof of vaccination. He just walked right in. Would it have made any difference if they did proper vaccination checks? Who can say with 100% certainty. But at New York Comic Con they did proper vaccination checks, outside of the venue before you even got to the convention center. Nothing happened in regards to Covid, and definitely not at the level of the new variant threat scare at Anime NYC. Coincidence? Who knows. I only ask that people do the jobs they are supposed to do. If you require people to show proof of vaccination, actually require people to show proof of vaccination. |
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tygerchickchibi
 Posts: 1486 |
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Yeah that checks out. Most anime fans go to Duet for karaoke and I'm 100% positive that masks were off when singing. I'm not sure how good the filtration systems were there but I guess not good enough. Still, being vaccinated is definitely better than not. |
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Aresef
Posts: 918 Location: MD |
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I’m pleasantly surprised, I guess. Anime NYC’s original vaccine requirement was in line with the city’s at the time, which meant you could get your first dose and go into buildings and all that that same day. So it wasn’t really a full mandate until after we heard about Patient Zero. The original news blew up my plans for a couple days as I got tested and waited. But maybe I should’ve seen this development coming, like the guy suggesting he caught the virus offsite and not at the con.
I was crew so I didn’t have to stand in that horrible line. But I hope organizers figure out some way to make that process of checking vaccine cards more efficient next time, assuming this is something we all have to deal with next year. |
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xxmsxx
 Posts: 601 |
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Yeah, having a policy of vaccination does not mean that having the means to implement the policy. Other conventions, including the one I will be going to later in the year, should take note and start planning for the implementation phase right now. |
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Juno016
 Posts: 2436 |
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Breakthrough cases with vaccinated people during Delta were rare, and full vaccination (even before a booster) had already been shown to reduce the likelihood of spreading it when you got it, making it perfectly reasonable at the time to require one or the other and not reduce able convention-goers by requiring both. That has changed with Omicron, but we also didn't know enough about Omicron at the time. |
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NeverConvex
Subscriber Posts: 2581 |
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I think this is true if you believe vaccination was sufficient to attain herd immunity (i.e., stop a tendency towards outbreaks) -- and, similarly, if you think the false negative rate on the tests was sufficient to do the same (when combined with other 'con policies/infrastructure choices for masks, air filters, crowd management, etc). There's not nearly as much extra benefit to further defensive measures once herd immunity's been hit. If you don't think it/they was/were sufficient to achieve that qualitative property, though, then I think this is not as obvious, although it may still be a reasonable choice to make, depending on your risk preferences, sure. (EDIT: And, in retrospect, it looks like they did achieve herd immunity within the 'con, so it seems it worked out.)
Has it? Would be interested if you have any useful citations. I haven't seen an update to the kinds of careful contact-tracing studies of infra-family transmission that I thought were most useful for estimating vaccines' transmission efficacy. I also don't think I've ever seen a nice estimate of break-through rates, even in those studies, which seems kind of weird, but maybe I need to look harder. |
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tasukete
Posts: 20 |
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Ask and ye shall receive: SARS-CoV-2 Omicron VOC Transmission in Danish Households In the study population, an Omicron patient would infect another household member about 31% of the time overall. Breaking it down by vaccination status, Omicron infected those with 0, 1, or 2 mRNA doses at about the same rate, but 3x mRNA doses had a large effect (46%). The study also cites that "full vaccination" (2x mRNA) is still 40% effective against Omicron infection generally (i.e., not in a household where you are constantly exposed to the index patient). While that isn't too comforting on an individual level, it's still a big number when talking about a population, plenty big enough to achieve herd immunity when combined with other measures. It's a good bet that Anime NYC escaped being a superspreader event because of all its measures working together. Or, put another way, it could very well have been a superspreader event if even one of its measures had been relaxed. This same Danish group is working on a similar study on BA.2 right now. |
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NeverConvex
Subscriber Posts: 2581 |
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Oh, perfect! That's one of the research groups whose work I'd followed previously on alpha and delta. Figured they would have a follow-up on omicron. Those results are about what I had figured may be the case after watching alpha and delta -- seems like each major set of mutations comes with a significant decrease in transmission efficacy, but still leaves a non-negligible amount of it.
Agree, but that depends heavily on what "combined with other measures" means.  40% (/46%) is a long way from even the 80% estimates of HIT wikipedia had for delta (and I'm assuming we're looking at more like 90-95% HIT for omicron?), but more than large enough to be an important part of a control strategy. With regular use of masks, crowd control, efficient air filtering systems, and PCR testing, herd immunity does seem possible. That's a lot of if's, though -- also very easy to not achieve herd immunity if too many of those links aren't systematically practiced (or aren't practiced together, just individually).
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iamthevastuniverse
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This certainly won't be the last time such a event like this happens hopefully future cons, con staff and their attendees will be far smarter in the future when dealing with this type of thing.
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omoikane
Posts: 494 |
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The first Omicron case in the USA was found after the con has already ended. In any event it wouldn't be feasible to change your admission policy on a hunch on a new virus strain the month the con is suppose to happen, that has no actual case in the US. https://www.cdc.gov/media/releases/2021/s1201-omicron-variant.html |
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NeverConvex
Subscriber Posts: 2581 |
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? Not sure what this has to do with the post of mine that you quoted. |
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enurtsol
 Posts: 14896 |
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NYC has been more strict, and so NYers tend to be more protected. So the type of people most attended helped
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