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NEWS: 11 Arrested in Japan for Uploading via Share Program


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edzieba



Joined: 13 Dec 2006
Posts: 704
PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2009 8:06 am Reply with quote
ikillchicken wrote:
but if the actual show offers no value whatsoever then how much benefit is there really in an official release?
This is my point exactly. There is no point in selling DVDs if nobody wants to buy them. So stop selling them, use an alternative, far cheaper, distribution method, and sell at a much lower price, one that people are actually willing to pay, or no price at all. Rely on physical goods to make money (e.g. figures, toys, artbooks, etc).
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CCSYueh



Joined: 03 Jul 2004
Posts: 2707
Location: San Diego, CA
PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2009 2:30 pm Reply with quote
edzieba wrote:
This is my point exactly. There is no point in selling DVDs if nobody wants to buy them. So stop selling them, use an alternative, far cheaper, distribution method, and sell at a much lower price, one that people are actually willing to pay, or no price at all. Rely on physical goods to make money (e.g. figures, toys, artbooks, etc).


There's the rub, though.
As Alice Cooper told Tom Snyder, he hated when people/critics trash stuff because the author poured a certain amount of effort into it & EVERYTHING has a fan (Choirboys was mentioned-book? movie? I forget). I am awed when I see kids raving on a title I remember critics & the public hated when initially released. Look at Nightmare Before Christmas. Some critics loved it, my local one trashed it. I took my daughter to it 5 times in the 3 weeks it lasted in the theaters & when it came out on VHS I bought it, but so many mommies of my daughter's daycare friends had nothing good to say about it, did NOT allow their children to see it. By your estimate, considering how swiftly it vanished from theaters,
Quote:
So stop selling them, use an alternative, far cheaper, distribution method, and sell at a much lower price, one that people are actually willing to pay, or no price at all.

When all it was is the usual parental overprotection of children we've seen for years. Your opinion suggests a title such as Nightmare Before Christmas which was underappreciated has no value.
What of the whole "art house" scene? Movies made or imported with the idea a smaller audience will see them. So because 1/10th or less of the audience even exisits in the first place, they shouldn't even bother with a dvd release? I love my copy of M, though I can't say how many people bother buying it & it cost me about twice as much as the ususal dvd.
I understood Bandai Visual's pricing was smaller titles aimed at a smaller market thus a higher price. I am so happy I have Demon Prince Enma, Haruka & Super Robot Wars in my collection & I do not regret the price I paid for them because I understand rarity=more expensive as opposed to mass market=cheap. I would not expect to pay $40 for 3 episodes of Naruto because they will make more money selling a box of 13 eps for $40 or $50 (whatever. I'm buying Bleach, actually, not Naruto. But I wouldn't pay $40 for 3 eps of Bleach.) It's like caviar or Louis 13th cognac. Some things cost more. If you're too cheap to pay the going price, you don't really have a right to the item be it a Big Mac or an anime
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edzieba



Joined: 13 Dec 2006
Posts: 704
PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2009 6:38 pm Reply with quote
Art-house films are a perfect case where DVDs would still work (the audience is obviously willing to pay above the odds to see the films), and also a good case where digital distribution to a larger market could be beneficial to the filmakers, even without immediate additional profit.
Quote:
I would not expect to pay $40 for 3 episodes of Naruto because they will make more money selling a box of 13 eps for $40 or $50
And they would make even more by selling boxes with even more episodes for even less. And even MORE by selling downloadable burnable discs for vastly less. Imaging if each burnable DVD, with 3 episodes on it, cost $3. That's essentially $3 pure profit, with a massive increase in the number of purchasers.
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tygerchickchibi



Joined: 29 Sep 2006
Posts: 1465
PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2009 9:53 pm Reply with quote
edzieba wrote:
And they would make even more by selling boxes with even more episodes for even less. And even MORE by selling downloadable burnable discs for vastly less. Imaging if each burnable DVD, with 3 episodes on it, cost $3. That's essentially $3 pure profit, with a massive increase in the number of purchasers.


Once again...I don't know why people are complaining about price when I just bought 4 box sets for $80. All anime titles. But even with discounts, I'm sure the company took a hit in some way. I think people are also forgetting that a company does need profit to not only pay people who are employed, but there are other costs as well.

I really think that you're "lesser selling price = free" at this point. Sad

Seeing that the titles that were uploaded didn't even need to be, why are we talking about US items again when this happened directly in Japan? I'm afraid that we kind of went off course a bit.

walw6pK4Alo wrote:
It's like people only do things because they get paid, and that's just really sad.

LOLWUT

No seriously, I can't believe you just posted that. Dargonxtc pretty much made his point. You're gonna need money anyway to live, so why not get paid for doing something you like? And er, when people ARE desperate for money, people swallow their pride to work lower jobs to help themselves so they can get something rather than nothing. It may be a step backwards but you can always find something better. Though I understand a point that your making (because my ex is pretty much doing what you quoted), I don't think what you said would apply to this circumstance.
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HellKorn



Joined: 03 Oct 2006
Posts: 1669
Location: Columbus, OH
PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2009 10:12 pm Reply with quote
edzieba wrote:
And they would make even more by selling boxes with even more episodes for even less. And even MORE by selling downloadable burnable discs for vastly less. Imaging if each burnable DVD, with 3 episodes on it, cost $3. That's essentially $3 pure profit, with a massive increase in the number of purchasers.
I am really not sure on how you came to this conclusion; to begin with, costs are not zero dollars, and you give no reason to believe that people would prefer buying the same (or lower quality!) presentation for something they could get for free with that kind of model.
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ikillchicken



Joined: 12 Feb 2007
Posts: 7272
Location: Vancouver
PostPosted: Thu Dec 03, 2009 11:53 pm Reply with quote
edzieba wrote:
Rely on physical goods to make money (e.g. figures, toys, artbooks, etc).


Get real man. A tiny fraction of the most hardcore fans want that kind of thing. The vast vast majority just wants to watch the shows. It's not even close to the size necessary to actually make up the costs of creating anime itself. I doubt it would work for even the most mainstream stuff like Naruto let alone semi-obscure stuff. That's just the beginning of the problem as well. Even people who buy this stuff are only going to buy it for stuff they really like. If your response to a title is 'eh, it was okay' you don't want an artbook and a bunch of figures. The thing is though, the bulk of the stuff you see it probably going to be mediocre. So basically, even with the tiny little market for merchandise you're not going to generate any revenue from all but the best shows. Not to mention there's a whole other additional cost required in releasing merchandise that has to be made up in addition to to the major cost of the anime itself. Bottom line is, the numbers aren't there. This is fairly observable to even an outsider actually. Clearly the industry has been selling merchandise for ages. So when you say just sell merchandise and not the shows them self you're actually going to see the exact same situation but without the small remaining revenue from DVDs. So basically, the industry will be making less money than they are now. If this doesn't seem like a problem to you then you're not really living in the real world. Honestly I think that's the problem here. You base your whole thought process on what you want. "Hmm. I don't want to pay for anime. I don't mind paying for figures though...Hey! The industry should just give me anime for free and make money off figures! Yeah!" Except while that may be the reality of what you demand, it's not reality in terms of what the industry can supply and still profit.
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CCSYueh



Joined: 03 Jul 2004
Posts: 2707
Location: San Diego, CA
PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2009 12:56 am Reply with quote
edzieba wrote:
You're conflating patents (a system of temporary monopoly on NOVEL physical devices to promote continued research) with copyright. Stop that.


Psst
Come over here
(whisper) You DO know that Cory Doctorow is JUST a man with an opinion. He spreads his opinion on the net. He's written some sci fi.
So did L Ron Hubbard.

I disagree with his sad little opinion that I can't un-remember a book when I read it. I don't know about you (or him), but I re-read books all the time because I do not have a photographic memory & I want to re-live the journey unveiled in that book. If he is basing his opinion on the idea once I've read his book, it ceases to have value, he is truely less than wise.
Same for a tune. Yes, I can remember the melodym but the performance is another matter. Remembering in my head never is the same as the goosebumps a well-executed passage creates.
And that artist who creates that music deserves to be paid what he wants-the cost of a concert ticket, the cost of a cd, the cost of a download-to show my appreciation for that joy that song instills in my day. I cannot comprehend people who do not want to thank the artist for bringing them joy.

Quote:
And they would make even more by selling boxes with even more episodes for even less. And even MORE by selling downloadable burnable discs for vastly less. Imaging if each burnable DVD, with 3 episodes on it, cost $3. That's essentially $3 pure profit, with a massive increase in the number of purchasers.


The math fails me.
It costs what-half a million or so to make a show, but $1 per ep is pure profit?
To whom? Some fan who posted a copy on the net?
If the studio pays $1,000,000 for the show, spends $50,000(conservative I know) advertising it, $1,000 (since you are of the opinion it costs nothing to make dvds) to manufacture the dvds, with an estimated 500,000 interested audience, they have to sell for at least $2 per set (& I really believe that's dreadfully conservative. I'd figure at least $100,000 advertising & $10,000 manufacturing--& maybe double or triple on the cost to make the title Look at American shows where they pay the fricken star 5 arms & 2 legs per ep).
Then the store selling it has to make their money-employee costs, rent, etc.
You seem to imagine there is no cost to making these shows
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walw6pK4Alo



Joined: 12 Mar 2008
Posts: 9322
PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2009 5:45 am Reply with quote
Pretty sure that the merchandising aspect of anime does fairly well in Japan, judging by the thousands of figures that are made in large amounts, and sold for decently high prices.
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PetrifiedJello



Joined: 11 Mar 2009
Posts: 3782
PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2009 9:10 am Reply with quote
ikillchicken wrote:
Get real man. A tiny fraction of the most hardcore fans want that kind of thing.

Explains why DVD sales are plummeting faster than merchandise sales.

Quote:
The vast vast majority just wants to watch the shows.

The issue, though, is how they're watching the shows they want.

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It's not even close to the size necessary to actually make up the costs of creating anime itself.

Review my other post on how I broke down $2.8 billion dollars in terms of episodes. It's obviously inaccurate, but the analysis does not include merchandise sales of other countries. I would say the United States has paid for more series than they're receiving based on the data.

Quote:
I doubt it would work for even the most mainstream stuff like Naruto let alone semi-obscure stuff.

Allow me to try and erase this doubt. If the merchandise sales weren't spectacular, a series like Naruto wouldn't be as long. The same thing applies to anything released by the entertainment industry. If sales (or in many cases, viewership) are down, cancellations are quick and merciless.

Quote:
Even people who buy this stuff are only going to buy it for stuff they really like. If your response to a title is 'eh, it was okay' you don't want an artbook and a bunch of figures.

You're contradicting yourself here. I alone prove the latter part of your statement wrong, and trust me, there are more of us out there because the merchandise is better than the series.

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The thing is though, the bulk of the stuff you see it probably going to be mediocre.

Mediocre can do great things in quantity.

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So basically, even with the tiny little market for merchandise you're not going to generate any revenue from all but the best shows.

This "tiny little market" accounts for 90% of anime revenue.

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Bottom line is, the numbers aren't there.


Note the chart title. It would be nice to know the global amount, but the sales data seems quite elusive.

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If this doesn't seem like a problem to you then you're not really living in the real world.

Just like those who once sold buggy whips by the thousands, but couldn't understand why those profits were dropping when the horseless carriage was introduced. Please don't treat those as ignorant who refuse to support the "plastic whip (DVD)" industry when the "plastic-less carriage (internet)" allows them "transportation" (viewing) without needing the whip.

Quote:
You base your whole thought process on what you want. "Hmm. I don't want to pay for anime. I don't mind paying for figures though...Hey! The industry should just give me anime for free and make money off figures! Yeah!" Except while that may be the reality of what you demand, it's not reality in terms of what the industry can supply and still profit.

You're more than welcome to stand there with your finger in the dam, trying to convince the world pirates are out to take it down, but it seems your audience decided to move away from the dam to a location supporting aqueducts.

Just don't get upset when your message goes unheard, especially when it appears the roar of the dam's flood water is preventing you from hearing the opposing facts you've wasted no time calling "hogwash".


Last edited by PetrifiedJello on Fri Dec 04, 2009 10:51 am; edited 1 time in total
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edzieba



Joined: 13 Dec 2006
Posts: 704
PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2009 10:14 am Reply with quote
ikillchicken wrote:
Get real man. A tiny fraction of the most hardcore fans want that kind of thing.
Which would explain why the vast majority of profits from anime actually come from merchandised goods rather than DVDs.
Quote:
The vast vast majority just wants to watch the shows. It's not even close to the size necessary to actually make up the costs of creating anime itself. I doubt it would work for even the most mainstream stuff like Naruto let alone semi-obscure stuff. That's just the beginning of the problem as well. Even people who buy this stuff are only going to buy it for stuff they really like. If your response to a title is 'eh, it was okay' you don't want an artbook and a bunch of figures.
WHICH IS WHY YOU DISTRIBUTE DIGITALLY WHERE THE DISTRIBUTION COST IS EFFECTIVELY ZERO. Fullcaps for emphasis, as you appear not the have read my previous post in full.
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Bottom line is, the numbers aren't there.
I direct you to PertrifiedJello's post above, and about a page back. DVD profits in 2007 were a mere 11% of character good profits, and that's just for the US!
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This is fairly observable to even an outsider actually. Clearly the industry has been selling merchandise for ages. So when you say just sell merchandise and not the shows them self you're actually going to see the exact same situation but without the small remaining revenue from DVDs. So basically, the industry will be making less money than they are now.
You've missed the whole 'digital distribution' bit. Or that more people watching shows, means more people buying goods.
Quote:
If this doesn't seem like a problem to you then you're not really living in the real world. Honestly I think that's the problem here. You base your whole thought process on what you want. "Hmm. I don't want to pay for anime. I don't mind paying for figures though...Hey! The industry should just give me anime for free and make money off figures! Yeah!"
Ad Hominem ahoy!
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Except while that may be the reality of what you demand, it's not reality in terms of what the industry can supply and still profit.
Or maybe the industry would prosper still further by embracing new distribution paths than trying to smother them. But I can't say for absolutely sure, as I have no time machine with which to observe the future with certainty.

CCSYueh wrote:
It costs what-half a million or so to make a show, but $1 per ep is pure profit?
To whom? Some fan who posted a copy on the net?
If the studio pays $1,000,000 for the show, spends $50,000(conservative I know) advertising it, $1,000 (since you are of the opinion it costs nothing to make dvds) to manufacture the dvds, with an estimated 500,000 interested audience, they have to sell for at least $2 per set (& I really believe that's dreadfully conservative. I'd figure at least $100,000 advertising & $10,000 manufacturing--& maybe double or triple on the cost to make the title Look at American shows where they pay the fricken star 5 arms & 2 legs per ep).
Then the store selling it has to make their money-employee costs, rent, etc.
I'll to resort to fullcaps again for comedic value: DISTRIBUTE DIGITALLY. DISTRIBUTION COST EFFECTIVELY NILL. NO RETAIL MARKUP. PROFIT INCREASE WITH PRICE DECREASE.
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HellKorn



Joined: 03 Oct 2006
Posts: 1669
Location: Columbus, OH
PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2009 1:37 pm Reply with quote
Petrified Jello wrote:
This "tiny little market" accounts for 90% of anime revenue.
Can you or anyone else who states or implies that DVDs "aren't all that essential to the anime market" explain to me why you think that MOST anime series are supported by merchandise sales? Can you tell me where to buy a Ghost Hound plushie?

edzieba wrote:
I'll to resort to fullcaps again for comedic value: DISTRIBUTE DIGITALLY. DISTRIBUTION COST EFFECTIVELY NILL. NO RETAIL MARKUP. PROFIT INCREASE WITH PRICE DECREASE.
So licenses, site upkeep, translations, dubs, advertising (this still has to be done with your model) are low enough in your reality that companies would be able to recoup the costs with... $3 DVD-Rs?

And, as I asked earlier, "you give no reason to believe that people would prefer buying the same (or lower quality!) presentation for something they could get for free with that kind of model."
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Annf



Joined: 20 Feb 2009
Posts: 578
PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2009 2:05 pm Reply with quote
The "other merchandise makes way more money than DVDs" thing is extraordinarily misleading. That value is comprised almost entirely of mainstream children's properties, e.g. Pokemon. It's barely related at all to the shows ANN readers care about.

JP loves to trot those numbers out, but unless all you're interested in is children's toy promotion shows localized for U.S. broadcast T.V., it's not particularly meaningful.
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PetrifiedJello



Joined: 11 Mar 2009
Posts: 3782
PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2009 3:25 pm Reply with quote
HellKorn wrote:
Can you or anyone else who states or implies that DVDs "aren't all that essential to the anime market" explain to me why you think that MOST anime series are supported by merchandise sales?

Wouldn't this same question be applied by all those tentpole DVD sales which support those that only sell less than 100 copies?
Not fair to separate out this approach simply because not all anime creates merchandising franchises.

Quote:
Can you tell me where to buy a Ghost Hound plushie?

The same place selling the DVD series of Demonbane.

Annf wrote:
The "other merchandise makes way more money than DVDs" thing is extraordinarily misleading.

It's not misleading at all. The numbers are right there, yet people still dispute them to argue against "piracy". If anyone actually bothers to look, it's quite clear DVD sales have been pretty steady over 6 years. It's merchandising that's taken the hit.
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yuna49



Joined: 27 Aug 2008
Posts: 3804
PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2009 3:54 pm Reply with quote
A good chunk of those DVD revenues aren't coming from the shows people here watch either. They include things like Spirited Away or Howl which far outsell television series. On Amazon a complete series boxset of Naruto ranks below #5,000 in sales; Spirited Away checks in at #332 today. Howl's Moving Castle ranks #598.
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edzieba



Joined: 13 Dec 2006
Posts: 704
PostPosted: Fri Dec 04, 2009 8:32 pm Reply with quote
HellKorn wrote:
licenses
Don't bother, drop regional licensing entirely and simply distributedirectly from the studio/producers
Quote:
site upkeep
Minimal, evenbandwidth costs are negligable
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translations
$500 - $1000 per episode. Probably less.
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dubs
Will probably disappear for most series, 90% of the time they're simply too expensive to be worth the effort as it is anyway.
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advertising
The show IS the advertising.
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are low enough in your reality that companies would be able to recoup the costs with... $3 DVD-Rs?
With $3 downloads with which you can do what you want (burn to DVD-r, stream to media centre/extender, play on PC, play on portable device, etc), yes. Probably with bog-standard video files distributed for free too.
Some napkin-math:
Around ¥5,000,000 ¥10,000,000 per episode production costs ($100,000)
$3 for a pre-made DVD/BD image
33,333 DVD-r images sold to recoup production costs from digital distribution alone (as sole source of revenue, NOT an expected scenario)
Most popular shows sell 10,000-30,000 DVD/BDss in their première week in Japan (I can't find any sold copy numbers for US/UK/etc)
Grabbing some numbers from TT for a current anime (Darker Than Black), 100,000 downloaders from torrents alone seems reasonable.
If DVDs disappeared overnight and everyone in Japan switched to downloading, that's almost the production cost covered off-the-bat. Add in, say, 10% of torrent viewers deciding they want a faster/better quality/'too lazy to master' version and that $3 is worth it, and costs are more than covered. And that ignores streaming, foreign DVD market sales, character goods in their entirety, etc.
These are essentially asspull numbers, but covering production costs via digital distribution is far more feasible than naysayers claim.
Of course, changing the production process from the current "production comittee hires studio" model to something else can change production costs too.

Quote:
And, as I asked earlier, "you give no reason to believe that people would prefer buying the same (or lower quality!) presentation for something they could get for free with that kind of model."
Unless someone screws up their releasing immensely, official downloads should both be significantly higher quality, and significantly faster, than free alternatives. Instead of trying to fight fansubs and fans with legislation, just do what they're already doing, but do it better. Lazyness will take care of the rest.
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