Forum - View topicNEWS: Tokyo Issues Alert After New Daily COVID-19 Cases Rise to 34
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Яeverse
 Posts: 1146 Location: Indianapolis |
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Returned to normal way too fast: the sequel
people warned about this |
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DavetheUsher
 Posts: 505 |
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No doubt, but it's really a damned if you do, damned if you don't situation. I'm lucky enough I've worked from home for the past 10 years, but not everyone is as lucky and they can't afford to not work anymore. If they gotta risk exposure to pay the bills, well, I can certainly understand people willing to take the risk. No doubt it's worse in Japan since it's much more claustrophobic and harder to social distance there, especially in a culture where they did the whole wearing sick masks and going to work even when sick long before the west did. |
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Amy192
Posts: 67 |
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Wow who could have predicted this
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Kougeru
 Posts: 5595 |
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Stampeed Valkyrie
 Posts: 858 Location: PA |
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34 cases.. oh noes!!! The cat is long out of the bag, and quarantining the healthy does not work. The response to this, has been far more destructive then the virus even its worst case scenario ever could have been. TLDR: People are still going to get sick, this is normal. Take whatever precautions you need, but the world is not ending. |
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DerekL1963
 Subscriber Posts: 1122 Location: Puget Sound |
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Right. That's why everywhere there's been a lockdown - cases have diminished.
Right. Not getting ill, not suffering long term consequences, not dying is so much worse than getting ill, suffering long term consequences, and dying.
TLDR: No, pandemic diseases spreading rapidly is not normal. And nobody has claimed the world is ending - the only people who bring it up are people trying to pretend this isn't happening. |
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nargun
Posts: 930 |
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I mean, a lockdown looses you a couple of months of productive capacity from, say, half your population. Say a month of gdp. The earlier the lockdown the shorter it can be. A month of gdp over a working life of 45 years is about 0.2% of the economy's total supply of labour. It's actually probably less than that because labour isn't the critical factor, but eh. Call it 0.2%
The alternative to "lockdown until levels fall to the point that your state capacity can test and trace individual cases and eliminate the disease" is "let the disease run -- slow or fast -- until it runs its course". This means that call it 80% of the population gets infected. The coronavirus in australia --- where we're pretty sure we've got the vadt bulk of cases, and where our health system is excellent and never exceeded capacity -- has a death rate of 1.4%. This is probably the best attainable. Eighty percemt of that is 1.15%. These are largely older people, so not as much left, so eyeballing it in terms of lost labour it's probably half that, call it 0.5% 0.5% is more than 0.2%: shutting the economy down will lose you less labour in total than letting the virus spread will, and by no small margin. |
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-SP-
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What did they think was going to happen? We will be seeing the same thing with other countries, in the coming weeks.
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zrnzle500
 Posts: 3768 |
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Fundamentally, trying to make it a choice between focusing on the economy or focusing on public health is a false choice. We ultimately need to do both to combat the crisis. If we don’t have the virus under control, many people aren’t going to feel safe eating at a crowded restaurant or watching a movie in a packed theater, and many other things. It doesn’t matter if you flip the sign over to OPEN if few come in, or if they run back home after cases spike again. The idea people will be happy warriors charging into battle with the virus for the economy is belied by the fact that the lockdown was voluntary well before different places ordered it. Certainly there were costs, but that is why financial aid is needed for those affected by the crisis, so people are not forced to choose between paying their bills and getting or spreading the virus. We could certainly take a more targeted approach to stopping the virus, but that requires much more testing than is being done in certain places, which will require more resources than some leaders have put towards the problem.
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Яeverse
Posts: 1146 Location: Indianapolis |
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I never understood the debate because,
The more people that survive = the more the economy benefits, more survivors to pay for [insert gov't services, taxes, buy product, etc] The more people that survive = the more people there are to work and generate profits for your company as they work. To go for an idea of "get to work faster so we can open up quickly for profits BEFORE a resurgence happens if we shut down again" seems silly seems fast to me in jpn since i was under the impression many people kept gong to work anyway |
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nargun
Posts: 930 |
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To point out, though... the people who are pushing for reopening are, well, broadly the same people who thought gay marriage (or openly gay people not in jail!) would be bad, that there was no significant sex-abuse problems in [insert institution], that single mothers would be the end of us, that the iraq invasion would combat islamic terrorism and pay for itself, that climate change would never be a problem, that wage rise hurt the economy and tax cuts helped, et cetera et cetera et cetera.
Casting your mind further back these are the intellectual successors of people who tjoght declaring war on the united states was a great way to protect your racially-exploitative and violent power structures. They're kinda thick, is the thing. (The numbers I just ran involve no information that wasn't availible in january and no maths that wasn't learned in primary school. And yet you'll still get people arguing against it.) |
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Lynx Raven Raide
 Posts: 412 Location: Central Coast, AU |
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This could be highly debatable and we will really see in the coming days. It will be interesting to see the spread relating to Shinjuku, but I don't know why but it didn't surprise me that area would come up, given my limited knowledge of that area. That aside, they also noted that they were coming from hospitals too, so if it is limited to those two areas and doesn't create to many more cases over the next week or so, then the "Returned too fast" call might be unjustified. While 34 is a lot, especially given how this spreads, its not like the hundreds some areas got not so long ago. And this kind of spike can happen even with lock downs in place. I think it was about a month ago, there was a spike of 18 from a meat works in Victoria, when all states in Australia were under some sort of lock down. As I said, it may be to early to make that call and we will really see in a week or so. |
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Cardcaptor Takato
 Posts: 5218 |
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They could probably do a lot to cut back on the risks by just keeping movie theaters closed for the rest of the year. Movie theaters are not an essential business and a hot spot for germs to spread easily and there’s no new movies out right now anyway because everything is delayed.
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Greboruri
Posts: 387 Location: QBN, NSW, Australia |
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Maybe you should have a look at Sweden and Brazil. |
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