Forum - View topicNEWS: Alita: Battle Angel Film to Earn Estimated US$41.7 Million in U.S. in 5 Days
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pengin senshi
 Subscriber Posts: 34 |
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I did my part and saw it with four of my friends & family members this morning. The 11AM showing was about half full, which was actually more than I was expecting after hearing the early estimated earnings.
Not knowing the source material, I still thought is was a great movie with maybe a little too much packed into it. I also though Alita looked great and her eyes definitely don’t stand out as much since the first trailer (or maybe I’ve just gotten used to them). |
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Luke's Yu-Gi-Oh! Channel
 Posts: 159 Location: Australia |
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No surprise it's cleaning up big time.
I will probably watch it in another week or 2, I'm not in a complete rush. |
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Shay Guy
 Posts: 2377 |
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Huh. Whaddya know:
Still may not be enough to break even. Last edited by Shay Guy on Mon Feb 18, 2019 1:24 am; edited 1 time in total |
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walw6pK4Alo
 Posts: 9322 |
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The worldwide goal is about $400m, then it's more likely we'll get our sequels. I hope it can get there.
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Key
Moderator
 Posts: 18537 Location: Indianapolis, IN (formerly Mimiho Valley) |
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Definitely not doing well enough to be considered a hit, but at least the numbers are significantly better than the dismal estimates that were originally given. If the Japanese and Chinese markets help it at least break even then I'll consider it a success.
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Tenchi
 Posts: 4556 Location: Ottawa... now I'm an ex-Anglo Montrealer. |
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I'm not saying that Alita: Battle Angel can't do well in China but it will be facing some stiff domestic competition at the Chinese box office with their home-grown sci-fi epic Wandering Earth that is doing gangbusters over there right now having earned the equivalent of over $560 million at the box office over the past two weeks.
Last edited by Tenchi on Mon Feb 18, 2019 3:48 pm; edited 1 time in total |
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Coup d'État
 Posts: 179 |
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Are those numbers good? Bad? Really bad? Mediocre?
I don't know anything about financing movies - are they expected to pay for themselves in one week only? Aren't there still a ton of secondary marketing ways, like disk sales and streaming licenses? |
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Punpun's ghost
 Posts: 73 Location: Wales |
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Interesting. A couple of things springs to mind.
It's clearly doing better than was predicted; I wonder what sort of impact such predictions have, either in putting people off or (possibly in this case?) galvanising people to go and give it a chance. Of course, word of mouth could be helping - I haven't read many comments by people damning the film; most people, myself included, seem to have enjoyed it. One thing which has struck me is the film didn't come across as cynical - it reads as an enthusiastic film by people who were enthusiastic about the project, a bit of a passion project, I guess, and maybe that's helped. Certainly, that's not something I would have thought would inspire your average newspaper critic, but it is something which, dare I say, can translate into a steady groundswell of support. Y'know, that's not a million miles away from what happened with Greatest Showman, which isn't the most amazing piece of film making, but it's hard not to enjoy it's enthusiasm, which struck me as similarly sincere. Going back ten or fifteen years, a film like this could reasonably expect to make up box office shortfalls with decent DVD and Bluray sales. Dare I say, even adding multiple collector's editions (shudder)? But today, with DVD's diminishing, how would a film like this make its money up with people watching it on streaming services? I have no idea as to how much profitability there is in a studio having its film watched on Netflicks (rather than a Netflicks film made for that service, which I would guess has more margin in it?), but if it's anything like the music streaming model, then I would guess they couldn't hope to add much profit in the home-viewing market. The more distance I get from this film, the more I want it to do well. I'm far from being an unbridled sci-fi fan, but the manga has won me over, and the film did too. I found myself cheering the character on, and that makes me want to cheer the film on too. |
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AkumaChef
Posts: 821 |
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They are bad. Not REALLY bad, but bad. Especially given the high production budget and the fact that it was done by a very well respected and highly successful director, James Cameron. It's posting the kind of numbers you'd expect from an indie movie, not something from a huge-name director. There are certainly other marketing venues here. Disks, merch, streaming, etc. But that may not make up all that much money. These days disk sales are not very high, a lot of people don't buy discs at all anymore, they just stream. Streaming will certainly make some money, and I'm sure there will be some merch too, but exactly how much remains to be seen. |
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johnnysasaki
Posts: 950 |
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even if a sequel is greenlit,how long would that take?Another 20 years?James Cameron is at an age where he really doesn't have the luxury to make long term plans anymore like he is doing with the Avatar sequels. I know he's perfeccionist and likes to take his time and that's probably why he has a mostly great filmography,but he's 64 now,whatever dreams and plans he has,he's gotta make them now before he regrets... |
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Shaone
Posts: 21 |
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Well I saw it Friday night with some friends, some who like anime and some who don't. They all liked it. It is a good sci-fi action film with high-end special effects. When was the last time you saw one of those? The theater was half-filled with people who were mostly 40+. Considering how narrow that demographic is I thought it did well. Alita won't be the vanguard that ushers in a wave of American-produced, live-action manga projects. Just enjoy it for what it is. I waited 15 years for Alita and I was not disappointed.
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Ushio
Posts: 636 |
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$500 million world wide needed to break even for Alita you need to remember marketing/distribution isn't part of the production budget and can nearly equal it. It's the catch 22 you need to spend a lot on marketing/distribution so people know it exists and can see it but at the same time it makes it harder to see a return on investment. |
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Ushio
Posts: 636 |
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This film is a flop in the USA but maybe Japan, China and South Korea can save it worldwide.
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azabaro
 SubscriberPosts: 255 |
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They're fairly bad. A film has a production budget ($150-200 million for Alita), and a marketing budget (generally assumed these days to be about equal to the production budget); to break even the film therefore has to make back about twice its production budget - around $400 million for Alita. A couple of complicating factors: 1) Box office returns are split between the theater and the distribution company, and this split tends to vary over the run of the film: early on the distributor gets the lion's share of the revenue, but over time the theater's portion of the take rises. This means movie distributors and producers want movies to go big in the first couple weeks. Also, films usually though not always do less business each subsequent week in theaters. 2) Movie financing at the high end is treated as just another type of investment, which means it's getting compared to things like mutual funds in terms of the return it delivers over time. That means a movie that makes back its total budget but no more is considered a loss (you could have just bought Treasury bills). Also, a film that makes a 10% profit can be seen as having performed worse than a film that makes a 5% profit if the higher-profiting film takes a lot longer to reach that level. I don't think any of us knows the specific numbers that apply to Alita, except that hitting around $400 million worldwide is sort of the first goal, and the faster that happens the better. $41.7 million over 5 days including a long weekend is not a great sign, though some films get saved by non-US box office (IIRC, Pacific Rim basically owes its sequel to the Chinese box office). |
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Xristophoros
 Posts: 151 |
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that sounds very far fetched... cameron produced and co-wrote alita -- he did not direct it. sure, those roles are still a fair amount of work should there be a sequel, but it is not on the same level as directing. i don't think cameron would complain if the movie does well enough to warrant a sequel. he will co-write the screenplay again most likely, which will only take a few months of his time. he could pass on producer duties to someone else. robert rodriguez would need to be invested enough to continue on with a trilogy. that is a different matter entirely but i'm sure he and cameron discussed this possibility going in. the film ends in such a way that it works well enough as a stand alone film but also leaves room for a sequel. for me personally, alita was far superior to 90% of the marvel/dc schlock we have seen over the past 10 years. it felt inspired, fresh and daring in ways the superhero films do not. for the sake of hollywood, which has become very stale and formulaic, a film like alita succeeding is very important. alita could also allow (encourage or pave the way) for a magnitude of other manga/anime properties to be greenlit and given respectable live-action adaptations as well. alita is to manga/anime what xmen (2000) or spiderman (2002) was to comic books with regards to live action adaptations. it will forever be referenced as the "one that started it all" -- if indeed, such as trend occurs that is. |
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