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valoon
Joined: 01 Apr 2015
Posts: 172
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Posted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 9:39 am
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They should add the cryptocurrency iota. It is the only one that has zero fee transactions and the transaction is confirmed after a few minutes at max.
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Mr. Oshawott
Joined: 12 Mar 2012
Posts: 6773
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Posted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:13 pm
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Considering Bitcoin's extreme volatility in its unsure value, this is for the better.
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EricJ2
Joined: 01 Feb 2014
Posts: 4016
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Posted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 12:27 pm
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Mr. Oshawott wrote: | Considering Bitcoin's extreme volatility in its unsure value, this is for the better. |
Ever talk to a Bitcoin supporter? It's like to talking to an Esperanto hobbyist:
"It's a new idea that's going to spread across the world like wildfire in our lifetime, and unite the world with progress!"
Yeah, or be a complete technical mess, that quickly disillusions anyone curious about it in practice, so everyone finds it easier to stick with what they've got.
It's supporters seem to be caught up in the idea that something is going to replace grandpa's old coin-money in their lifetime (and it's not going to be Paypal), they don't notice the hacks, the difficulties in production, or even now the ecological worries of mining it.
And given that few people outside of the supporters known exactly how the system works, but its supporters believe it's so coming, you're a fool to keep supporting other systems of currency while its value skyrockets and skyrockets to more volatile extremes....that's three for three in how a Bubble happens. Throw in the word "Mortgage derivatives" and see what happens.
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Chrno2
Joined: 28 May 2004
Posts: 6172
Location: USA
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Posted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 3:10 pm
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Well, I'm the only person who doesn't know much about Bitcoin, but folks are going crazy over it since it went up. Now I wonder if it's too late for me to get in on the madness.
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unready
Joined: 07 Jun 2009
Posts: 409
Location: Illinois, USA
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Posted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 4:02 pm
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The current Bitcoin madness is a classic bubble.
Unlike "real" currencies, there's nothing to establish the value of a Bitcoin, so it's real value is essential zero. Any value greater than the real value is the bubble, which in this case is all the value. (Really, instead of being traded like a currency, it's being traded like a commodity.) At least derivatives are based on the value of something using a complicated relationship designed to be incomprehensible. Bitcoin is based on nothing.
Setting that aside, the reason Bitcoin is going up is because people want to take advantage of the rise before the inevitable crash that they know is coming. They think they can buy and hold now and still sell before the crash. They just have to "time it right." Some of them will.
The money they make comes at the cost of those who don't. Most of them won't.
How lucky do you feel?
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EricJ2
Joined: 01 Feb 2014
Posts: 4016
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Posted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:09 pm
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unready wrote: | The current Bitcoin madness is a classic bubble. |
How textbook "classic"? You can tick them off the list:
1) It's a new technology that blows the minds of mainstream people, using Those New Computers/Internet/Chips to do magic, so it's never been invested in before in our parents' generation--And remember those who didn't invest in Apple, thirty years ago?
2) Mainstream people who do invest in it have no CLUE why it works, or even why it should be popular, even if it's still on the ground floor and hasn't really hit the market yet--But who are we to question the future?
3) Because they don't understand it, they turn to the main central Wizard of Oz figure behind the technology, who can't really explain it in layman's terms, but promises that the way he worked the numbers, it's guaranteed not to fail.
4) The rush of early investors creates a boom in the value, causing other finance buzz to call it the "hot new investment", and the rush starts taking over the headlines.
5) Other industries, like retailers or Internet companies, believe the headlines that this new gizmo will be the Wave of the Future, and shape new products and services designed to revolve around the new gizmo as the center of all daily life and commerce.
6) Happy early investors who continue to get rich off of inflating the investment value to suit new industries not only point to the rise of related tie-in industries as The Wave of the Future, but that the Future Is Here to sweep away all traces of the old-generation's version, so why would you put your money in any other investment like coal or steel?
7) Experts, finding basic flaws in the logic of the whole central concept of the technology or investment, try to float logical warnings of doom, but the happy satisfied investors gleefully laugh off and discredit as "stubborn" and "outdated", since, after all, numbers don't lie and everyone's getting rich, aren't they?
....And then something happens. Nine times out of ten, USUALLY for the exact same reason that the doomsaying experts predicted. It happened with stocks in the 20's, it happened with Dot-Com's in the 00's, it happened with mortgages in the 10's, and it happened with Uber, and it's all down in the textbooks.
When you invest in things you don't understand, you suffer--Superstition ain't the way.
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Polycell
Joined: 16 Jan 2012
Posts: 4623
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Posted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:17 pm
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unready wrote: | Unlike "real" currencies, there's nothing to establish the value of a Bitcoin, so it's real value is essential zero. |
"Real" currencies aren't much better. Almost the entire "supply" of most of them is nothing more than numbers in a book. The only actual difference is that various governments won't deal in ones they didn't issue unless they have to.
valoon wrote: | They should add the cryptocurrency iota. It is the only one that has zero fee transactions and the transaction is confirmed after a few minutes at max. |
Bitcoin processes transactions every ten minutes; the main thing screwing its value for spending is the absurdly low number of transactions processed in each block. Almost every altcoin is better about this(eg, Litecoin processes transactions every 2.5 minutes).
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unready
Joined: 07 Jun 2009
Posts: 409
Location: Illinois, USA
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Posted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 7:48 pm
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Polycell wrote: | "Real" currencies aren't much better. |
Real currencies are based on real economies. There is no Bitcoin economy.
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jdnation
Joined: 15 May 2007
Posts: 2109
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Posted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:31 pm
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Guys I have news for you...
Most of the money in the world - like those we use through our credit cards, and see on our bank accounts...
It's ALL Digital.
90% of it doesn't exist in any paper or physical form nor with any backing either other than by fiat of the government/central bank/federal reserve/whoever you put in charge to control your money and therefore your lives.
If you think the real world markets aren't as volatile and propped up by all kinds of shady deals and magical rigged shenanigans and... yes... military threats - then you're not living in the real world.
Bitcoin and cryptocurrencies are a response to the rigged fiat-currencies you use in everday life. The kind that also lose value whenever your politicians decide to change things in the economy.
Just ask those living in Canada, how government decided to make certain moves to scuttle the dollar, which combined with other events related to high oil prices all contributed to the decline in the Canadian dollar's value, erasing 30% of people's savings and driving up prices of stuff - including prices of luxury items like video game consoles and games. The hike with regards to the minimum wage will also slowly raise the price of goods and reduce the value of your government-issued money - which for Canada by the way has no gold reserves. Simply - 'Trust Us, We're the Government.'
And if government or the banks decided to lock you out of your account or limit your withdrawals because one day they decided that some of the paper money you have needs to go away, then, too bad, you can starve to death for all they care. For a recent example see what occurred in India this year. And the excuse is always - to protect you or to get the crooks, but it's the majority of people who end up suffering.
And given that the majority of money you have is digital anyway, unlike Bitcoin where ledgers are public and can be cross referenced and checked, your banks and government can easily cook the books and you wouldn't know it.
Now, unless you really know what you're doing I would not recommend amateurs get into Bitcoin. Once all Bitcoin has been mined and it steadies and other competing cryptocurrencies come on the market - just as we have nations with competing fiat currencies - then things will stabilize more in time. But right now, unless you do this for a living and have money to risk, it's not the time to buy in.
Money is whatever people agree to in terms of exchange and bartered with all kinds of things since the dawn of civilization. It's a representation of your labour. Not some magical thing provided to you by government. Governments who by the way were also on the road to unveiling their own centrally controlled digital currencies, but Bitcoin and others beat them to the market.
What's occuring with Bitcoin right now is entirely natural. That said, as a reminder, don't get involved right now unless you know what you're doing and can take the risk.
unready wrote: | Real currencies are based on real economies. There is no Bitcoin economy. |
Why would Bitcoin need it's own economy? People purchase goods for it right now and many places like Steam have accepted it as payment for awhile.
All of it is one and the same economy. The only thing that matters is people willing to accept it as a form of payment in order to work. Government doesn't like it because they can't monitor or tax it. And that was the point.
The current volatility occuring to Bitcoin right now is also susceptible to every other government backed fiat currencies. All you need is a war or sanctions or corruption or internal economic collapse or decision to scuttle its worth to send your government-issued notes into the toilet.
Last edited by jdnation on Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:36 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Wyvern
Joined: 01 Sep 2004
Posts: 1597
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Posted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:35 pm
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unready wrote: | The current Bitcoin madness is a classic bubble. |
No kidding. It's the "Tulip Mania" of our time. The price is being inflated not by the actual value or utility of the commodity, but simply because it's a trendy thing that everyone's trying to get rich off of. These sort of things aren't sustainable. The crash should be spectacular if nothing else.
And that's our economics discussion for today. Cue the ending theme: "Seven apples on the witch's tree..."
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jdnation
Joined: 15 May 2007
Posts: 2109
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Posted: Fri Dec 08, 2017 11:43 pm
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Wyvern wrote: | The price is being inflated not by the actual value or utility of the commodity, but simply because it's a trendy thing that everyone's trying to get rich off of. |
So basically... market demand?
Like... the same demand that gives the U.S. petro-dollar its value?
Once the 'trend' dies down over the long term, then Bitcoin will come down to something more stable and realistically sustainable and people can judge its worth then just as they can any other world currency.
At least Bitcoin has a limit.
Whereas, government-issued currencies can be printed with abandon and only serve to continually reduce the worth of the paper one holds in their hands.
China pegs their yuan to the dollar in order to keep it lower with the dollar's rise or fall in order to attract investment. Canada's government scuttled 10% of the people's wealth to do likewise. But falling oil prices wiped out 30% of the Canadian Dollar's worth. Other countries too try to drop the value of their currency to keep up. Because higher values don't necessary mean a good thing. And it's inevitably a race to the bottom.
Bitcoin inevitably dropping down to something more realistic and then maintaining that stability would be a good thing. So the bubble does need to burst and will. Which is precisely why if anyone is thinking of buying Bitcoin, then now would not be a good time.
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unready
Joined: 07 Jun 2009
Posts: 409
Location: Illinois, USA
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Posted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:38 am
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jdnation wrote: | Why would Bitcoin need it's own economy? |
Value of currency = size of economy / units of currency in circulation
Size of Bitcoin economy = 0
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Wyvern
Joined: 01 Sep 2004
Posts: 1597
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Posted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 12:18 pm
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jdnation wrote: |
At least Bitcoin has a limit.
Whereas, government-issued currencies can be printed with abandon
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Yeah, except you'll notice they don't do that. No major government prints money "with abandon." They know full well that overprinting money leads to inflation, which is why there are limits and policies in place to make sure that doesn't happen. Bitcoin isn't the only currency with limits, EVERY major currency sets those, and they're constantly being adjusted as economic conditions dictate. Governments are incredibly careful about how much currency they print. They know full well what will happen if they're not.
Did you really think that the dollar could have remained the global reserve currency for 70+ years if the people in charge didn't understand such a basic principal? Come on, now.
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Top Gun
Joined: 28 Sep 2007
Posts: 4792
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Posted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 1:03 pm
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What a shock, Monopoly money winds up not being worth all that much in the real world.
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Polycell
Joined: 16 Jan 2012
Posts: 4623
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Posted: Sat Dec 09, 2017 9:31 pm
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unready wrote: | Value of currency = size of economy / units of currency in circulation
Size of Bitcoin economy = 0 |
Thank you for illustrating quite clearly you know nothing about either economics or Bitcoin. People have been conducting transactions in Bitcoin for quite some time, which makes your claim of the "size" of the "Bitcoin economy" objectively wrong.
Wyvern wrote: | Yeah, except you'll notice they don't do that. No major government prints money "with abandon." They know full well that overprinting money leads to inflation, which is why there are limits and policies in place to make sure that doesn't happen. Bitcoin isn't the only currency with limits, EVERY major currency sets those, and they're constantly being adjusted as economic conditions dictate. Governments are incredibly careful about how much currency they print. They know full well what will happen if they're not. |
Governments aren't nearly as careful about printing money as you claim. Unless inflation becomes a major concern of the populace, they generally don't care and will do what they please(especially if tanking their currency's value helps deal with debt).
Quote: | Did you really think that the dollar could have remained the global reserve currency for 70+ years if the people in charge didn't understand such a basic principal? Come on, now. |
Somebody clearly doesn't know the history. The dollar was set as the gold reserve currency as part of the Breton Woods system(forged in the wake of World War II), which saw almost every currency in the world effectively denominated in terms of USD. The system broke apart precisely because the dollar was printed well in excess of its treaty obligations.
The USD's current role as the dominant reserve currency is a combination of momentum, political dealings and outright military force. This is how the House of Saud has such a chummy relationship with the US; if they started selling in euros or gold, the dollar would be instafucked.
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