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Answerman - Why Is Japan's Population Declining?


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Aphasial
Exempt from Grammar Rules


Joined: 08 Aug 2010
Posts: 122
Location: San Diego, CA
PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:25 pm Reply with quote
Jonny Mendes wrote:
Is he population decline really that bad of a thing?
...
There are 7.4 billion people in the world with 11.2 billion expect in the year 2100.
The planet can't survive with this pressure. Is better to have a natural decline of population until a natural equilibrium is reached.

If you're talking long term (and really, all bets are off once we hit the singularity), the planet is not overpopulated... it's just not evenly distributed.

I'll see if I can find the link, but some progressive group did a study and concluded that the Earth could support a population of about 36B if resources were distributed and development was handled in the most maximally efficient manner. Not saying it's correct, but "overpopulation" isn't a given.

Hell, even in the US people seem to think we're overpopulated. These are usually folks on the far left who never venture outside the coastal cities. If they did, they'd realize how much frickin' space there still is in the US -- the western US in particular. It's only "overpopulated" if you think that specific, scarce land in popular cities is the only place a human can live.

Getting back to Japan, though. The biggest problems for them are economic, followed by cultural. If the population reduces to a lower point and then the birth rate stabilizes, then ... fine. You'll have economic problems in the short term and then less crowding in the major cities; basically it's a population correction. On the other hand, if the population drops and people *don't start having kids at replacement rate*, then you've got major problems well beyond that. Your society is literally dying; that's where the "death spiral" comes in. If there's no reason to think that Japanese men and young women are going to start hooking up more and having children, then the problem's still there.

The fact that 1/3 of the population has a self-described lack of interest in sex is, IMO, a MAJOR sign that Japan needs to address the problem on a cultural level. This isn't economic uncertainty; if worst comes to worse, the older population can literally pay people to have kids in the form of tax incentives. If people don't want to have kids or relationships at all, that's a different problem.


Also, I wouldn't expect Japan to get too much more progressive when it comes to LGBT any time soon. Non-heterosexual relationships that don't end in offspring are the last thing Japanese society needs to be structurally encouraging right now.
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BadNewsBlues



Joined: 21 Sep 2014
Posts: 6073
PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:27 pm Reply with quote
Paiprince wrote:
You're arguing semantics here. Come on, you should know where I was going at. But yes, assuming this region falls under your umbrella of progressive, give me reasons why you deem so.


If I did I wouldn't have asked the question I did which for the record is no.

Aphasial wrote:
Also, I wouldn't expect Japan to get too much more progressive when it comes to LGBT any time soon. Non-heterosexual relationships that don't end in offspring are the last thing Japanese society needs to be structurally encouraging right now.


Know one's really talking about encouraging it. Japan has an issue with pretending that homosexuality is something that doesn't exist......somehow.


Last edited by BadNewsBlues on Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:45 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Paiprince



Joined: 21 Dec 2013
Posts: 593
PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:44 pm Reply with quote
BadNewsBlues wrote:
Paiprince wrote:
You're arguing semantics here. Come on, you should know where I was going at. But yes, assuming this region falls under your umbrella of progressive, give me reasons why you deem so.


If I did I wouldn't have asked the question I did which for the record is no.

Aphasial wrote:
Also, I wouldn't expect Japan to get too much more progressive when it comes to LGBT any time soon. Non-heterosexual relationships that don't end in offspring are the last thing Japanese society needs to be structurally encouraging right now.


Where not really talking about encouraging it. Japan has an issue with pretending that homosexuality is something that doesn't exist......somehow.


At the rate you're going, I might have better luck calling Atlantis progressive because you can't give me a straight answer.

And recognizing homosexuality is a non-issue because they.do.not.make.babies.period. Biology says so. You can whine until your fingers bleed, but the fact of the matter is as Aphasial said, there is nothing to be gained by suddenly addressing it exists into fixing their population problem.
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AnimeLordLuis



Joined: 27 Jan 2015
Posts: 1626
Location: The Borderlands of Pandora
PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:46 pm Reply with quote
Yeah Japan really does need to change there tactics if they still want to be a key player in the world and I believe that they can pull it off but it'll be very difficult. Confused
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Jonny Mendes



Joined: 17 Oct 2014
Posts: 997
Location: Europe
PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:47 pm Reply with quote
Aphasial wrote:

Getting back to Japan, though. The biggest problems for them are economic, followed by cultural. If the population reduces to a lower point and then the birth rate stabilizes, then ... fine. You'll have economic problems in the short term and then less crowding in the major cities; basically it's a population correction. On the other hand, if the population drops and people *don't start having kids at replacement rate*, then you've got major problems well beyond that. Your society is literally dying; that's where the "death spiral" comes in. If there's no reason to think that Japanese men and young women are going to start hooking up more and having children, then the problem's still there.

The fact that 1/3 of the population has a self-described lack of interest in sex is, IMO, a MAJOR sign that Japan needs to address the problem on a cultural level. This isn't economic uncertainty; if worst comes to worse, the older population can literally pay people to have kids in the form of tax incentives. If people don't want to have kids or relationships at all, that's a different problem.


Also, I wouldn't expect Japan to get too much more progressive when it comes to LGBT any time soon. Non-heterosexual relationships that don't end in offspring are the last thing Japanese society needs to be structurally encouraging right now.


But don't forget one think. We are talking about Japan. In Japanese culture the value of the common greater good is more important than valuing one's own needs. Right now the general public don't see a great problem with the decline. The politics and the company's are more worried than the general public. But if there are a real danger to the survival of the country they will put the country above themselves and have how many kids are necessary.
But with the help of the incentives i talked before i don't think it will go to that point.
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Satoshi Batista



Joined: 17 Oct 2016
Posts: 13
PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:52 pm Reply with quote
There is something kind of hysterically absurd about people with cutesy anime avatars having a serious discussion advocating things like anti-miscegenation and eugenics.

This is certainly an entertaining thread, if nothing else

Quote:
Non-heterosexual relationships that don't end in offspring are the last thing Japanese society needs to be structurally encouraging right now.


It really doesn't matter if they "encourage" it or not. It's gonna happen regardless. People probably aren't gonna magically stop being gay because they heard there will be some tax breaks in it for them if they have kids. Like I said earlier, I wouldn't be surprised if the fact that many people no longer feel the need to enter into a loveless marriage with someone of an incompatible gender for them and then pump out babies just to hide the fact that they aren't straight is another (one of many, many other) contributing factor.
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BadNewsBlues



Joined: 21 Sep 2014
Posts: 6073
PostPosted: Tue Oct 18, 2016 12:26 am Reply with quote
Paiprince wrote:
At the rate you're going, I might have better luck calling Atlantis progressive because you can't give me a straight answer.


The issue you seem to have is that you want me to give you an answer I'm under no obligation to give you. Why would I say South America is progressive when they're not and then explain why that is when Google and various articles waiting to be read are right there for you.

Paiprince wrote:
And recognizing homosexuality is a non-issue because they.do.not.make.babies.period.


Hetero and homosexual people don't generally fall in love with each other with the end goal being having kids. In some instances having kids isn't even very practical.


Paiprince wrote:
Biology says so.


You seem to ignore the fact that some people can't physically have kids despite what biology supposedly says.


Paiprince wrote:
You can whine until your fingers bleed, but the fact of the matter is as Aphasial said, there is nothing to be gained by suddenly addressing it exists into fixing their population problem.


And like I said and as you ignored that's not the issue. Japan's problem is that they treat it as some thing young people engage in and are supposed to grow out of once they get older. How can Japan encourage Homosexuality when they already pretend it's not a thing that actually exists?
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CandisWhite



Joined: 19 Apr 2015
Posts: 282
PostPosted: Tue Oct 18, 2016 12:33 am Reply with quote
Blood- wrote:
Switching to more serious mode here, I agree that increased immigration is simply not an option for Japan unless attitudes there undergo a revolutionary change. History is destiny. Japan is one of the most homogenous countries in the world owing to its splendid isolation for most of its past.

I live in Canada, a country that is pretty successful in integrating immigrants. Immigration is the only reason our population has not declined. But we are pretty savvy about who we take in. Yes, we do take in refugees, but when it comes to immigration, we generally only let in people who have cash or skills.

THANK YOU! I was going to bring this up with all of the anti-immigration/multicultural rhetoric: Canada is a prime example of where this has worked.

Immigration is best done when immigrants are treated as new and fresh economic/ intellectual/ social vegetables that must be tossed into the salad but hold value as their own individuals: A salad's no damn good with either extreme of having the veggies in separate compartments or having only one veggie.

I live near Edmonton and, my God, are we a prime example of how this works when well done:

Edmonton is a hotspot for immigration; People come here because of the usually (not specifically now but in general) strong economy and the affordable living costs and the openness of the community. Immigrants are encouraged to keep their identity but, also, are expected to assimilate socially and economically; This has happened right alongside the local cultural celebration being kept strong, not as a backlash against "dem foreigners" but as a natural desire to keep loving the things that have built us and what is considered local has evolved and embraced new things over the years.

Mixing not only happens but is expected of society; You are a weirdo if you stay locked up in your house of identity (race, religion, etc.), regardless of how you define yourself. It is normal to see people of all colours in all places and levels of society: University presidents, cab drivers, surgeons, convenience store owners, million-dollar business owners, clerks who ring up groceries.

Even when you leave the city, though the diversity numbers go down, it is still not considered an odd thing to see or know people of a different background.

Canada being built on a history of immigration is pretty much ingrained in our souls; Being Canadian is not one thing, and our pride of it not being one thing is one of the things that make us Canadian.

We are not a Utopia: We are having some issues when it comes to integration, such as some young Muslim men being raised by their families to practice Islam the old country way, including not touching or being around women (I believe that both hard liberals, by wanting to let people be in boxes, and hard conservatives, by thinking that new people can't integrate at all, aggravate this) but that, overall, Canada has worked out a great system.

I do agree that Japan is starting with a cultural deficit when it comes to immigration attitudes, making mass immigration a less than ideal option, but, also, believe that it can be a more open society with time.

Sidenote: To the people saying gays don't have children, uh, yeah, they do: Artificial insemination, surrogate mothers. Even adoption provides a service because your population increase is no good if the babies don't have the stable home environment needed to be raised into a healthy and productive adult.
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Paiprince



Joined: 21 Dec 2013
Posts: 593
PostPosted: Tue Oct 18, 2016 1:11 am Reply with quote
BadNewsBlues wrote:

The issue you seem to have is that you want me to give you an answer I'm under no obligation to give you. Why would I say South America is progressive when they're not and then explain why that is when Google and various articles waiting to be read are right there for you.


So a non-answer coming from you. Yeah, I could google all that, but I was hoping to hear from your opinion. Guess I was the fool for expecting as much.

BadNewsBlues wrote:

Hetero and homosexual people don't generally fall in love with each other with the end goal being having kids. In some instances having kids isn't even very practical.


Yet most couples want to have offspring at some point because, you know, to keep the bloodline going. Such a foreign concept, I'm sure.


BadNewsBlues wrote:

You seem to ignore the fact that some people can't physically have kids despite what biology supposedly says.


We're not talking about infertility. We're talking about same sex couples who could not reproduce naturally.


BadNews Blues wrote:

And like I said and as you ignored that's not the issue. Japan's problem is that they treat it as some thing young people engage in and are supposed to grow out of once they get older. How can Japan encourage Homosexuality when they already pretend it's not a thing that actually exists?


And I'm saying what does this have to do with their disproportionate population problem? Quit putting up strawmen hoping no one calls you out on it.

CandisWhite wrote:
Sidenote: To the people saying gays don't have children, uh, yeah, they do: Artificial insemination, surrogate mothers. Even adoption provides a service because your population increase is no good if the babies don't have the stable home environment needed to be raised into a healthy and productive adult.


They still need a donor and a recipient which involves a male and a female. So if the gay couple is okay raising a kid that might not even look like them then I guess more power to them. And I'm sure a child being raised by two moms or two dads would lead to them having a normal childhood, completely free of potential ostracizing and backlash from peers. Yep, good chances at that.

Satoshi Batista wrote:
There is something kind of hysterically absurd about people with cutesy anime avatars having a serious discussion advocating things like anti-miscegenation and eugenics.


I know right. It's like everyone who has a cute girl avatar is expected to spout liberal opinions how everyone should join hands and sing Kumbaya collectively and everything will be peachy rainbows and unicorns.
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Satoshi Batista



Joined: 17 Oct 2016
Posts: 13
PostPosted: Tue Oct 18, 2016 1:33 am Reply with quote
Paiprince wrote:
And I'm sure a child being raised by two moms or two dads would lead to them having a normal childhood,


Given that virtually every credible study about children raised by same-sex parents says they do and end up no worse off than kids raised by straight parents? Yup.

Quote:

I know right. It's like everyone who has a cute girl avatar is expected to spout liberal opinions how everyone should join hands and sing Kumbaya collectively and everything will be peachy rainbows and unicorns.


Oh don't get me wrong. Serious discussions about political topics on anime forms often get ridiculous regardless of political views. It's just that the borderline fascism and eugenics in this thread has made it go to the point of parody. It's like the perfect microcosm of internet clusterf****s in one sitting!
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Paiprince



Joined: 21 Dec 2013
Posts: 593
PostPosted: Tue Oct 18, 2016 1:41 am Reply with quote
Satoshi Batista wrote:
Paiprince wrote:
And I'm sure a child being raised by two moms or two dads would lead to them having a normal childhood,


Given that virtually every credible study about children raised by same-sex parents says they do and end up no worse off than kids raised by straight parents? Yup.


Let's ignore the fact that kids are not-so-nice-people and will find every way to make anyone who doesn't fit their window of normalcy into a life of living hell. I'll leave it at that since we're straying way, way off course.
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relyat08



Joined: 20 Mar 2013
Posts: 4125
Location: Northern Virginia
PostPosted: Tue Oct 18, 2016 1:54 am Reply with quote
CandisWhite wrote:
Blood- wrote:
Switching to more serious mode here, I agree that increased immigration is simply not an option for Japan unless attitudes there undergo a revolutionary change. History is destiny. Japan is one of the most homogenous countries in the world owing to its splendid isolation for most of its past.

I live in Canada, a country that is pretty successful in integrating immigrants. Immigration is the only reason our population has not declined. But we are pretty savvy about who we take in. Yes, we do take in refugees, but when it comes to immigration, we generally only let in people who have cash or skills.

THANK YOU! I was going to bring this up with all of the anti-immigration/multicultural rhetoric: Canada is a prime example of where this has worked.

Immigration is best done when immigrants are treated as new and fresh economic/ intellectual/ social vegetables that must be tossed into the salad but hold value as their own individuals: A salad's no damn good with either extreme of having the veggies in separate compartments or having only one veggie.
.


The big problem with this is that most immigrants aren't well educated and affluent. They are trying to escape a place that doesn't have economic or education opportunities. Requiring everyone to already be healthy, talented and educated, and be able to add to your society is great and all, but it really does nothing for the majority of actual immigrants, who are looking for respite.
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Dextres



Joined: 04 Oct 2015
Posts: 428
Location: Decatur, GA
PostPosted: Tue Oct 18, 2016 2:39 am Reply with quote
Satoshi Batista wrote:
There is something kind of hysterically absurd about people with cutesy anime avatars having a serious discussion advocating things like anti-miscegenation and eugenics.

This is certainly an entertaining thread, if nothing else




And to think people say anime fans don't have serious debates & discussions on topics that matter Laughing


Fools.
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NGK



Joined: 10 Mar 2010
Posts: 244
PostPosted: Tue Oct 18, 2016 2:50 am Reply with quote
Blood- wrote:
Switching to more serious mode here, I agree that increased immigration is simply not an option for Japan unless attitudes there undergo a revolutionary change. History is destiny. Japan is one of the most homogenous countries in the world owing to its splendid isolation for most of its past.

I live in Canada, a country that is pretty successful in integrating immigrants. Immigration is the only reason our population has not declined. But we are pretty savvy about who we take in. Yes, we do take in refugees, but when it comes to immigration, we generally only let in people who have cash or skills.


That is how USA immigration was suppose to be after 1990 Immigration Act.
But reality got in the way as more visa overstayers and illegals continued to cross the southern border continued to occur with impunity during the 90s.

Consider your country lucky because your system was built from the ground up so that illegals can't ever set up presence. Too many ways to get screwed as an illegal there - your system designed to do exactly that.
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Afezeria



Joined: 20 Aug 2015
Posts: 817
Location: Malaysia, Kuantan.
PostPosted: Tue Oct 18, 2016 3:43 am Reply with quote
On a different subject, Malaysia is also a nation that is overunned by immigrants, brought in either as workforce since god know when but most were definitely travelling in through illegal means. The results in such an event has caused Malaysia to be overwhelmed with all sort of cultures, religion celebration and ethnicity either from Mangolia, Thailand, Indonesia (especially this one), Bangladesh, Africa and all others but like Actars or what the Singaporean has mentioned earlier, it has also caused all sorts of problems like increased in crime rate, kidnapping, gang activity, robberies and all sort of other crap there is. Of course, it wasn't always the fault of non Malay because we aren't a bunch of kindness filled all god blessing people either as the media here has covered many instances of newborn babies being dumped by their respective parent (local usually) and whatever else there is but the increase is there, developed to full bloom by immigrants attempting to do all sort of shit. The media has always reported that ton of crackdown and showdown and beatdown were conmenced to every nesting site for immigrants there is located all over the nation but there's almost always no proper development on the left, right, front and back. Beside the problem with crime and all, people as well complained about the local not having any job to do because apparently the foreigner has taken it all (eventhough it's a well known fact amongst here that local malaysian themselves doesn't like to take the heavy works). Apart from the obvious glaring issues that local here has their own set of problems, the outsider that is looking for trouble has only served as to worsened the society. And no, I am not implying that every immigrant over here is bad.

The shorter version for this is, bringing in immigrants doesn't always work the way you wanted it to. It is indeed a double edged sword, having it's own advantages and disadvantages like everything else out there.

From my personal perspective, like everybody else has probably mentioned in this thread, bringing in foreigner to the heavily homongenous or whatever Japan in an instant would cost more harm than good. The Japanese valued their cultures, foods and all that meant something to them by a long mile and having something that seemed alien to them will just caused panic and issues. Of course, not every Japanese is gonna remain close minded to new things but if there's ever a need to bring more immigrants there, it need to start from the lowest scale so that everyone can get comfortable in embracing a new chapter. I feel like I wanted to say more but I don't really know how to gather those info in my head.
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