Forum - View topicINTEREST: Recochoku Poll: Most 'Amazing' Winter Anime
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Megiddo
 Posts: 8360 Location: IL |
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Huh? No. Overall sales.
As you can see in this blog post, I took the data from Stalker in early december and was able to reasonably estimate how well each show would do. Only two I was off was Horizon on Guilty Crown, and both only because they had a huge surge in pre-orders once the last episode aired. |
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ArsenicSteel
 Posts: 2370 |
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I don't do blogs and certainly expect YOUR blog to agree with whatever flavor of cool-aid you're pushing.
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Megiddo
Posts: 8360 Location: IL |
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Okay then. So you don't read anything that would counter your own opinion. Good to know.
Oh well, if you can't see your error and you can't read anything that would prove your error then there's no point in continuing. |
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Surrender Artist
 Posts: 3264 Location: Pennsylvania, USA |
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You expect that because you want to be right and rather than try to demonstrate that, you just rationalize reasons to consider his stance inherently illegitimate. He's offered his claim and some data, so since you're so confidence that he's wrong, rather than just expecting, try establishing that factually rather than just resorting to a presumptuous association fallacy and your usual belligerence. |
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ArsenicSteel
Posts: 2370 |
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I've asked how to read those charts for myself. That has been answered and I simply am not going to rely on someone as spoon-feeding me what those numbers mean to them. Now I can guess this conversation will slowly drift away from the original claim that "Daily Lives will be the low seller from the season" to "Those Amazon stalker points are great speculative analysis of overall sales, except when they are wrong." Edit- His claim, by the way, was that preliminary stalker points can be used to represent overall sales and his link only compares Amazon stalker points to Amazon sales ranking. |
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RyanSaotome
 Posts: 4210 Location: Towson, Maryland |
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None of those would have any kind of sales, anyway (if they even have a DVD release in Gokujo and Recorders case). Only significant thing missing is Black Rock Shooter, which should be added any day. And they have every anime that is listed on Amazon. You can't blame them for not having preorder numbers if the company producing the anime isn't allowing people to preorder it, or not even doing a DVD release. |
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Parse Error
 Posts: 592 |
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You need to provide some context for that claim - specifically, at what point does it reach that accuracy? I find it rather difficult to believe it could come anywhere near that close on the first day something becomes available for preorder, and it's never very long afterward that people use it to go around insisting some show they dislike is absolutely guaranteed to be a massive failure. If that's the figure from a few hours before the street release, then it's hardly impressive, and certainly shouldn't be used as support for any projections at this point. |
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HitokiriShadow
 Posts: 6251 |
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No, its based on an accumulation of points from between when it first goes up for order and when its released. You can usually tell how well a show is going to do, relatively speaking, within a few weeks of the solicitation. Every once in a while a show will get a boost after a particularly eventful episode, but its usually not going to make a huge difference and is usually a show that was at least doing okay to begin with. Show's that are ranking at the bottom after 3-4 weeks are going to be bombs and there is virtually no chance of that changing. I don't think RyanSaotome is actually correct with his statement, as I know there were a few cases that were off significantly, but those were the top sellers of the season, because the system skewed numbers for shows that sat at #1 for a lengthy period of time. They changed how points are calculated recently though, and it seems like it was pretty dead on last season. I'm not sure what point RyanSaotome or others are looking at for predicting the sales numbers rather than relative success. But actually, yes, it is pretty impressive to be able to get that close to the actual sales numbers before they're released. And the sales numbers predicted ARE the overall sales numbers, the ones ANN includes in its BD rankings. |
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Parse Error
Posts: 592 |
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Perhaps I wasn't clear enough. I don't care about the method of ranking and how well shows are doing compared to each other, only at what stage the accuracy figure applies to the sales projections. Obviously the initial wave of preorders will give a fairly good indication of which degree of success a show is going to achieve unless some surprise development in the show changes its path, but 15% seems an impossibly narrow range for such an early projection.
Ranking at the bottom shouldn't automatically mean that something is going to "bomb" unless the actual units sold of a show with a better ranking are already known and an extremely low number. "Virtually no chance" seems a strong statement considering how through most of last season many people were claiming C3 wouldn't even sell 200 discs based on these projections. While its sales did turn out to be fairly poor, they were still off by slightly more than an entire order of magnitude as of the last time I noticed. What are your odds based on, how far back is there sufficient data to see whether this was the once-in-a-lifetime exception, or something that happens to an average of at least one show every other season? I could understand someone using this as a guesstimation tool to check up on their favorite show, either for comfort or as an early warning to brace for the worst. What I actually see it used as instead is an infallible crystal ball for bashing shows and mercilessly mocking their fans over the absolute certainty of horrendous failures that haven't yet and may never actually come about, when I would say ArsenicSteel's summary of the defenses given so far for this attitude is spot on:
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RyanSaotome
Posts: 4210 Location: Towson, Maryland |
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The only time I ever notice Stalker take significant swings one way or another is when original anime has some big plot twist or something to give it a spark... like Infinite Stratos was beating out Madoka early on in the Winter 2011 rankings, but then after Episode 3 it passed up Infinite Stratos. But even then, Madoka was still #2 before then... you're not gonna go from bottom 5 to respectable no matter what happens.
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Parse Error
Posts: 592 |
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For the love of God and all that is good and holy, please go knock on some wood before Another goes any higher...* As for the survey, well, I guess 925 self-selected respondents explains everything. It still isn't quite as amusing as the ten best and ten worst anime polls which seem to end up with identical results. * Yes, after talking about people bashing shows this is hypocritical, but only intended as a joke. I passionately loathed Kamisama Dolls but was still distraught upon seeing its sales. At least Another is charming in its own hackneyed way, and you will definitely not find me cheering if it does not make a profit. |
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HitokiriShadow
Posts: 6251 |
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Oh, saying its never off by more than 15% is just flat out wrong. I already said that his statement was wrong. Heck, as I was trying to find information on C3, I saw that their predictions for Persona 4's first volume was over by 57%. And I know they've been off by more than 15% for other things. Amazon Stalker points are certainly far from infallible and most definitely don't have the degree of accuracy that was claimed earlier in this thread. So no, people should not be acting like the Stalker Points are the actual sales data. But they are very good indicators of relative success and can give a decent idea of what kind of sales to expect. As for C3, I don't recall anyone throwing out numbers for it where I saw it discussed, just predictions that it wouldn't sell well enough to justify a sequel. And its actual sales numbers were certainly that. |
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