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NEWS: Industry Group Head Says Anime is a Bubble that Burst


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Greed1914



Joined: 28 Oct 2007
Posts: 4640
PostPosted: Tue May 05, 2009 6:06 pm Reply with quote
ikillchicken wrote:
Quote:
He said that Japan should emphasize quality over quantity


My god! It's almost as if he's realized what a ton of people have been saying for ages.


It is pretty amazing. I don't think this issue will be entirely bad. If companies have to be more selective about their choices, I think the quality will go up. Of course, it could easily be argued that if fewer shows are made, then we'll get more formulaic titles because there is less room to take a chance on something original.
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Zipper



Joined: 11 Dec 2008
Posts: 133
PostPosted: Tue May 05, 2009 6:10 pm Reply with quote
I would certainly love to see the abolishment of generic "moe" anime and a bigger focus put on quality shows. But I don't see it happening because as much generic boring crap that is out there, people are still buying it. Look at Strike Witches. One of the top selling shows in recent history, all the while there are much more quality titles that go under people's radar for whatever reason. So I guess we better get used to all the moe blob stuff like K-ON, moefied versions of every genre (for God's sake we even have a moe mahjong anime now), zillions of hentai game adaptations, etc. It's here to stay.

Last edited by Zipper on Tue May 05, 2009 8:26 pm; edited 1 time in total
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HellKorn



Joined: 03 Oct 2006
Posts: 1669
Location: Columbus, OH
PostPosted: Tue May 05, 2009 6:30 pm Reply with quote
DomFortress wrote:
I share his sentiment as well as yours. The 80's through early 90's were truly the golden age for Japanese animation overall mainly due to the massive OVA format and the steady theatrical releases of high quality anime series. Back then, anime was well made to simply tell a story, instead of today, when animated TV advertisements are being mass-produced to promote story elements that sell characters related merchandises. That, my friend, is the state that we're in, "quantity" overtook "quality".
The rose-tinted nostalgia is unending.

It's fine if you what to somehow want to deny that mecha was the moe back then, or that they weren't any different to sell a product, or that the creativity was restricted to a few select films and OVAs before Evangelion came along to change the possibilities for auteurs in anime television, but you don't have to advertise it.
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AJ (LordNikon)



Joined: 14 Apr 2009
Posts: 516
Location: Kyoto
PostPosted: Tue May 05, 2009 8:44 pm Reply with quote
while, I do not condone fan subbers, the fan subbers have been around back in the Laserdisk and VHS days of anime. I remember fan subbing back in the 80's.

The moves of RIAA have sure made a name of blaming the dubbers, and while the dubbers are not helping thier cause, nor is streaming video or P2P on the net, anime has clearly been in a bubble since the early 90's. The situation is compounded by a demographic with limited spending capability, global recession and over saturation of the market.

I can use the same analogy as to what is killing the anime market as to what had nearly killed off the video game industry in the early 80's. Again, over saturation, target demographics, and low quality. Today everything is an imitation of everything else. How many Eva Clones or Bebop imitations do we need? What's new and original anymore? Today's audience is not captivated.

The final problem is the Pokemon generation which spawned the grown of this market segment is now in college and are in the stage where they are leaving college. This generation of Gen-Y'ers are outgrowing anime, and regrettably there is no "Pokemon" type of show that has grabbed the Net Gen population of 5-12 year olds the same way Pokemon had done close to 20 years earlier.

And, that's just the issues for western cultures, for the Japanese and other eastern cultures, there are a good number of additional issues.
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DomFortress



Joined: 13 Feb 2009
Posts: 751
Location: Richmond BC, Canada
PostPosted: Tue May 05, 2009 9:04 pm Reply with quote
Descent123 wrote:
DomFortress wrote:
I share his sentiment as well as yours. The 80's through early 90's were truly the golden age for Japanese animation overall mainly due to the massive OVA format and the steady theatrical releases of high quality anime series. Back then, anime was well made to simply tell a story, instead of today, when animated TV advertisements are being mass-produced to promote story elements that sell characters related merchandises. That, my friend, is the state that we're in, "quantity" overtook "quality".

And damn, LDs! You're more hardcore than I could imagine. The only LD I've seen was the Tehchi Muyo OVA that my sister owns, and she doesn't even have a LD player.


I agree, too much quantity in the market, it's enough to turn me off.

I have about 60-70 US anime LDs. I should upgrade the Tenchi OVAs and the Tenchi Universe to DVDs but I just like LDs so much more. I really love the packaging jobs since if you buy the LDs it comes with a lot of extras that you can't get on the DVD versions.

I have three LD players, want one? Smile
Hell yeah! The End of EVA LD came with a Mass- Production EVA Unit Frisbee, among other special contents like production notes, line arts, story board(all in their separate notebook). Gosh it was glorious! The artworks on the LD package were also a sight to behold, my favorite have got to be the Giant Robo OVA artworks. Now I can only see them on art books.

I got a LD player that double as a karaoke machine, so I'm good. But thanks for the offer. Cool

Greed1914 wrote:
ikillchicken wrote:
Quote:
He said that Japan should emphasize quality over quantity


My god! It's almost as if he's realized what a ton of people have been saying for ages.


It is pretty amazing. I don't think this issue will be entirely bad. If companies have to be more selective about their choices, I think the quality will go up. Of course, it could easily be argued that if fewer shows are made, then we'll get more formulaic titles because there is less room to take a chance on something original.
Well look at it this way, all the newest anime series are simply remakes of existing titles on different mediums. So technically speaking we haven't had an original anime series since...

... someone help me out here? Neutral

HellKorn wrote:
DomFortress wrote:
I share his sentiment as well as yours. The 80's through early 90's were truly the golden age for Japanese animation overall mainly due to the massive OVA format and the steady theatrical releases of high quality anime series. Back then, anime was well made to simply tell a story, instead of today, when animated TV advertisements are being mass-produced to promote story elements that sell characters related merchandises. That, my friend, is the state that we're in, "quantity" overtook "quality".
The rose-tinted nostalgia is unending.

It's fine if you what to somehow want to deny that mecha was the moe back then, or that they weren't any different to sell a product, or that the creativity was restricted to a few select films and OVAs before Evangelion came along to change the possibilities for auteurs in anime television, but you don't have to advertise it.
Ha! You think NGE was ta bomb? It was an embarrassment by denouncing the human spirit when it was made during the Japanese economic recession. And the proof is in the remake of NGE as a movie trilogy.

Face it, we had it good. Until you got spoiled.

ajlordnikon wrote:
And, that's just the issues for western cultures, for the Japanese and other eastern cultures, there are a good number of additional issues.
Like the social, educational, and moral breakdowns of the new generation in Asian Pacific region? Well we're not that far behind the trend, I can tell you that.
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HellKorn



Joined: 03 Oct 2006
Posts: 1669
Location: Columbus, OH
PostPosted: Tue May 05, 2009 9:18 pm Reply with quote
ajlordnikon wrote:
Again, over saturation, target demographics, and low quality. Today everything is an imitation of everything else. How many Eva Clones or Bebop imitations do we need? What's new and original anymore? Today's audience is not captivated.
And there was originality in the 80s?

I'm also not seeing the "Eva Clones and Bebop imitations"; a few mecha series that take a few base elements of the former and Watanabe revisiting his glory days are hardly arguments against creativity.

DomFortress wrote:
Well look at it this way, all the newest anime series are simply remakes of existing titles on different mediums. So technically speaking we haven't had an original anime series since...

... someone help me out here? Neutral

You seriously haven't watched any anime of the past decade outside of mecha-revival series; there's no other logical reason for you to make that kind of ridiculous statement.

Quote:
Ha! You think NGE was ta bomb? It was an embarrassment by denouncing the human spirit when it was made during the Japanese economic recession.

I wasn't making a statement on its quality either way, but it's pretty stupid to deny that it was one of the earliest anime that gave artistic freedom to staff for anime television series.

And "denouncing the human spirit"? Huh?

Quote:
And the proof is in the remake of NGE as a movie trilogy.

That doesn't follow.

Quote:
Face it, we had it good. Until you got spoiled.

Uh, no. Unless you considering an entire subset of a medium to be "good" when it struggles to create original series to keep up any sort of creativity for television, or that somehow those in love with mecha weren't spoiled for years and aren't much different than those who love moe-inducing shows.
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DomFortress



Joined: 13 Feb 2009
Posts: 751
Location: Richmond BC, Canada
PostPosted: Tue May 05, 2009 10:00 pm Reply with quote
HellKorn wrote:
ajlordnikon wrote:
Again, over saturation, target demographics, and low quality. Today everything is an imitation of everything else. How many Eva Clones or Bebop imitations do we need? What's new and original anymore? Today's audience is not captivated.
And there was originality in the 80s?
Hell yeah! Not to mention next to nothing market saturation due to illegal online distributions of intellectual properties like anime.

HellKorn wrote:
I'm also not seeing the "Eva Clones and Bebop imitations"; a few mecha series that take a few base elements of the former and Watanabe revisiting his glory days are hardly arguments against creativity.
That's because something like NGE was already been done before it was made, at least twice. And they are Muteki Choujin Zanbot 3 in 1977 and Densetsu Kyojin Ideon in 1980, both were done by "Kill 'em All" Yoshiyuki Tomino.

HellKorn wrote:
DomFortress wrote:
Well look at it this way, all the newest anime series are simply remakes of existing titles on different mediums. So technically speaking we haven't had an original anime series since...

... someone help me out here? Neutral

You seriously haven't watched any anime of the past decade outside of mecha-revival series; there's no other logical reason for you to make that kind of ridiculous statement.
You mean besides anime TV adaptations of preexisting intellectual properties, and animated TV advertisements with story elements to sell character related merchandises, there were actually original Japanese animation productions today the likes of Disney, Dreamworks, and Nickelodeon?

HellKorn wrote:
Quote:
Ha! You think NGE was ta bomb? It was an embarrassment by denouncing the human spirit when it was made during the Japanese economic recession.

I wasn't making a statement on its quality either way, but it's pretty stupid to deny that it was one of the earliest anime that gave artistic freedom to staff for anime television series.
It was made on a shoestring budget courtesy from TV Tokyo, and the director himself was on a mental depression breakdown while the whole Gainax Studio was about to go under. Or did you thought that those uncomfortable moments of silences held by still shots were actually "artistic freedoms" and not a result of reduced budget during production?

HellKorn wrote:
And "denouncing the human spirit"? Huh?
Don't tell me you never sat through and listen the entire song of Come, Sweet Death. Or did you think that humans were all naturally born miserable and depressed?

HellKorn wrote:
Quote:
And the proof is in the remake of NGE as a movie trilogy.

That doesn't follow.
If so, then why spoiler[making Shiji to have a backbone in the first of the trilogy: You Are (not) Alone?]

HellKorn wrote:
Quote:
Face it, we had it good. Until you got spoiled.

Uh, no. Unless you considering an entire subset of a medium to be "good" when it struggles to create original series to keep up any sort of creativity for television, or that somehow those in love with mecha weren't spoiled for years and aren't much different than those who love moe-inducing shows.
I wasn't talking about anime TV series in the 80's through early 90's, sunshine. I was talking about OVA as in Original Video Animations, sweetie pie!
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Case



Joined: 09 Apr 2002
Posts: 1016
PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2009 9:19 am Reply with quote
xstylus wrote:
Kyogissu wrote:
...Is there some reason that we can't just say...

"The rising amount of fans that used to exist don't anymore. Anime, while a recognized hobby/culture, is no longer explosive in popularity."
The reason it can't be said is because it's not true. From 2002/2003 when the US market peaked to today, anime exploded in popularity and convention attendance tripled, yet as the report stated, sales plummeted roughly 40%.

Granted, there's credence to the opinion that the Japanese started to emphasize quantity over quality in response to what they thought was a voracious foreign market, but that alone wouldn't constitute a 40% drop in sales, and certainly not in the face of a threefold increase in fans.


xstylus wrote:
I think you're confusing sales with popularity. Anime popularity is still WAY up (although it might be just now starting to wane). It's sales that are down.


Con attendance in the US may be as high as ever, but I think it's still possible that anime is less popular in the United States. Here's a graphic I threw together a while back to illustrate:
http://img377.imageshack.us/img377/553/declineorgrowth.jpg

DVD sales, I think, are a significant and measurable indicator of anime's popularity, but not actually the focus of how I look at anime's popularity. Rather, I think having a healthy R1 anime market, with store shelves packed with DVDs full of advertisements cross-promoting new release shows from American companies, together with TV broadcasts, the occasional anime movie in theaters, and mass-market retail merchandising, anime reaches out to a bigger group of American media consumers that fansubs simply can't match. I accept that fansubs must bring some new people into anime as others lose interest and move on to other things, but I do not think fansubs can even come close to the exposure power of television and retail merchandising. Hence the difference between "Anime Fans" and "Anime Viewers" in the graphic.

The only thing is, I've had a difficult time finding numbers to back this up. When it comes to guaging the popularity of fansubs, since distribution is totally decentralized and only recreationally tracked, it's hard to come up with reliable figures to compare to DVD sales...

PetrifiedJello wrote:
Because this decline has a much, much bigger impact to the industry than sales of plastic disks.

Here's proof: Revenue chart


Confused

Did character goods really account for that much of market dollars compared to media sales? That would be shocking to me, if true. Merchandise is pricey I know, but I can't imagine that the number of consumers comes anywhere close to the number of DVD consumers in our country. I'm genuinely suspicious that someone might have plunked a global sales figure into a domestic market spreadsheet to get the result seen here... (Or, if for some strange reason, they consider manga = character goods for the purposes of the graph, which I would consider grossly misleading...)
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Descent123





PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2009 9:40 am Reply with quote
I don't see stuff like Neo-Tokyo, Robot Carnival, and Angel's Egg being made anymore.
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PetrifiedJello



Joined: 11 Mar 2009
Posts: 3782
PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2009 11:19 am Reply with quote
Case wrote:
Did character goods really account for that much of market dollars compared to media sales? That would be shocking to me, if true. Merchandise is pricey I know, but I can't imagine that the number of consumers comes anywhere close to the number of DVD consumers in our country. I'm genuinely suspicious that someone might have plunked a global sales figure into a domestic market spreadsheet to get the result seen here... (Or, if for some strange reason, they consider manga = character goods for the purposes of the graph, which I would consider grossly misleading...)

As a merchandise purchaser, I'm very inclined to believe the graph, and that's just in the figurine arena. I see these things "fly off the shelf" faster than I do DVDs.

Even if the chart does use global merchandising figures, it still doesn't remove the fact merchandising accounts for a greater significant revenue stream than that of U.S DVD sales.

Thus, proving, that not buying a DVD is going to cause a collapse in the anime industry, as many kids here think it will.

Interesting hypothesis on the manga=character goods generalization. Now that you've brought it up...
Evil or Very Mad
... I am now inclined to see a separate manga sales figure.

Wishful thinking from an industry secretive about its monies.
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Case



Joined: 09 Apr 2002
Posts: 1016
PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2009 1:57 pm Reply with quote
PetrifiedJello wrote:
Even if the chart does use global merchandising figures, it still doesn't remove the fact merchandising accounts for a greater significant revenue stream than that of U.S DVD sales.

Thus, proving, that not buying a DVD is going to cause a collapse in the anime industry, as many kids here think it will.


Errr? Even if the graph's numbers are vague and flaunt common sense? That was precisely what I was saying. The consistently massive size of the character goods category on this graph certainly catches my attention, but I gotta be a bit skeptical and say that it doesn't "prove" anything significant about the nature of the market's decline without sharing more specific figures and satistical details...
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PetrifiedJello



Joined: 11 Mar 2009
Posts: 3782
PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2009 2:12 pm Reply with quote
Case wrote:
I gotta be a bit skeptical and say that it doesn't "prove" anything significant about the nature of the market's decline without sharing more specific figures and satistical details...

Good luck with that. As one who is searching the internet for information regarding the distribution industry, anime is the most secretive of them all.

Yes, skepticism can be derived from the graph, but one shouldn't discount the PoS transactions it's based on.

In truth, I feel the monies are more than what's stated on the graph, not less. I just can't prove it.
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DomFortress



Joined: 13 Feb 2009
Posts: 751
Location: Richmond BC, Canada
PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2009 2:27 pm Reply with quote
Descent123 wrote:
I don't see stuff like Neo-Tokyo, Robot Carnival, and Angel's Egg being made anymore.
Robot Carnival, oh how I miss thee. That theatrical film was an awesome collection of short stories and the animation was top notched. It would've easily gave Disney a run for its money back then when it first came out, and the overall quality was still better than most of the current anime series in terms of production alone. That's a good call! Very Happy

PetrifiedJello wrote:
Case wrote:
Did character goods really account for that much of market dollars compared to media sales? That would be shocking to me, if true. Merchandise is pricey I know, but I can't imagine that the number of consumers comes anywhere close to the number of DVD consumers in our country. I'm genuinely suspicious that someone might have plunked a global sales figure into a domestic market spreadsheet to get the result seen here... (Or, if for some strange reason, they consider manga = character goods for the purposes of the graph, which I would consider grossly misleading...)

As a merchandise purchaser, I'm very inclined to believe the graph, and that's just in the figurine arena. I see these things "fly off the shelf" faster than I do DVDs.

Even if the chart does use global merchandising figures, it still doesn't remove the fact merchandising accounts for a greater significant revenue stream than that of U.S DVD sales.

Thus, proving, that not buying a DVD is going to cause a collapse in the anime industry, as many kids here think it will.

Interesting hypothesis on the manga=character goods generalization. Now that you've brought it up...
Evil or Very Mad
... I am now inclined to see a separate manga sales figure.

Wishful thinking from an industry secretive about its monies.
Congratulations, Case and PetrifiedJello, for you have finally stumbled upon something big. However, now you need to see the big picture, and how Japanese anime DVD sale is really going to.

Remember that the copyright holders have all rights regarding their copyrighted intellectual properties. But in today's anime production, anime TV series are often subcontracted properties with its own copyright belongs solely to the anime production companies, while the production ideas such as characters, mechanical designs, story concepts and such are properties belong to the Japanese corporate distributor, who are also the corporate sponsors of the anime series production committees.

Now remember that I've been stressing the fact that today's anime TV series are nothing more than "anime TV adaptations of preexisting intellectual properties, and animated TV advertisements with story elements to sell character related merchandises". That, combined with the above setup of subcontract out preexisting intellectual properties as anime TV series, means that anime production companies get nothing from character related merchandises sales, while they had to fork up the bulk of the anime production cost in order to obtain the copyright for just the anime TV series that they made, and thereby they can only get paid from licensing their intellectual properties; the "anime TV adaptations of preexisting intellectual properties, and animated TV advertisements with story elements to sell character related merchandises". At the same time, however, the Japanese corporate distributors are the real benefactors of all character related merchandises sales. Because they are also the real copyrights holders of the original preexisting intellectual properties that the anime TV series were based on, for they're also the sponsors of the anime production committees by subcontracting their intellectual properties to make animated TV ads.
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HellKorn



Joined: 03 Oct 2006
Posts: 1669
Location: Columbus, OH
PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2009 2:34 pm Reply with quote
Honestly, I'd rather be arguing with Gatsu.

DomFortress wrote:
That's because something like NGE was already been done before it was made, at least twice. And they are Muteki Choujin Zanbot 3 in 1977 and Densetsu Kyojin Ideon in 1980, both were done by "Kill 'em All" Yoshiyuki Tomino.

Superficial plot and character similarities are meaningless; if you seriously think that the direction, scripting, intentions and design of Evangelion are anything like Ideon, you're crazy.

Quote:
You mean besides anime TV adaptations of preexisting intellectual properties, and animated TV advertisements with story elements to sell character related merchandises...

You do know that this has been occuring since the 60s, right? And that nearly every single classic for television anime series up until the end of the 80s is adapted from manga?

Quote:
... there were actually original Japanese animation productions today the likes of Disney, Dreamworks, and Nickelodeon?

Utena, Lain, Denno Coil, Haibane, Texhnolyze, Paranoia Agent, Bebop, Kaiba, Mononoke, Wolf's Rain, RahXephon, Champloo, Last Exile, Ghost in the Shell: Standalone Complex, NieA_7, Ghost Hound, Windy Tales, The Big O, Eureka Seven, Kemonozume, Fullmetal Alchemist, Le Chevalier D'Eon, Now and Then, Here and There... are just some examples of anime original television series produced in a post-Evangelion environment that have achieved acclaim as being representative of some of the best anime there is. (Though Utena and Fullmetal Alchemist were originally a manga, the former bears little resemblance and the latter becomes it's own creation halfway through, with plenty of deviations before that.) We aren't even getting into adaptions that firmly set themselves as strong on their own, some even better then the original material.

Show me the diversity, experimentation and freedom that your so-called Golden Age produced that hasn't aged in the slightest.

Quote:
It was made on a shoestring budget courtesy from TV Tokyo, and the director himself was on a mental depression breakdown while the whole Gainax Studio was about to go under. Or did you thought that those uncomfortable moments of silences held by still shots were actually "artistic freedoms" and not a result of reduced budget during production?

So? Unless you're going to make the ridiculous claim that quality productions can only be made on substantial budgets with mentally healthy artists, and that anything to the contrary is bad, then there's no argument.

Quote:
Don't tell me you never sat through and listen the entire song of Come, Sweet Death. Or did you think that humans were all naturally born miserable and depressed?

Strawman. Also, what's your point? That because Anno is showing clinical-depression, he is somehow "denouncing the human spirit"? You seem to be implying that we should look at only triumphs and characters we can openly admire; take your problem up with Shakespeare.

Quote:
If so, then why [spoiler]making Shiji to have a backbone in the first of the trilogy: You Are (not) Alone?

Because Anno isn't depressed and we're talking about further milking of the franchise.

Quote:
I wasn't talking about anime TV series in the 80's through early 90's, sunshine. I was talking about OVA as in Original Video Animations, sweetie pie!

Do you intentionally try to be creepy? (Rhetorical question, by the way.)

My point still stands.

Descent123 wrote:
I don't see stuff like Neo-Tokyo, Robot Carnival, and Angel's Egg being made anymore.

Uh, those are films, and anthologies and experimental are still being made (Genius Party, Mind Game, Paprika, The Sky Crawlers... were those being made back then? No? Well, then).

PetrifiedJello wrote:
Even if the chart does use global merchandising figures, it still doesn't remove the fact merchandising accounts for a greater significant revenue stream than that of U.S DVD sales.

Thus, proving, that not buying a DVD is going to cause a collapse in the anime industry, as many kids here think it will.

I'd like to see a clear distinction made between all of those dolls and toys related to shonen properties (Naruto, Bleach, etc.) and the more otaku-oriented properties.

Unless you really believe that they're all driven by pure greed, and that somehow all of these companies lamenting a lack of DVD sales are really making it big for the majority of their series via things like figurines; or that somehow they're actually seeing much of this money float directly back to them.
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PetrifiedJello



Joined: 11 Mar 2009
Posts: 3782
PostPosted: Wed May 06, 2009 2:40 pm Reply with quote
DomFortress wrote:
stuff said

The only problem, DomFortress, is like everything else within this topic, what you said is speculation.

It's impossible to determine what a production company does, how much they pay, or what licensing rights are distributed.

Hell, if we had that info, these conversations would go away.

I can attest much of my assumptions is based on how the U.S. does licensing, and even that can be speculative.

Quote:
anime production companies get nothing from character related merchandises sales

And therein lies how speculation is derived, as "anime" can be as narrow as a studio or as wide as possible.
If by anime production company, you mean studio, that's pretty hard to believe. Can't dispute it, but for a studio, it's another avenue.

Unless, those investors paid for that license as well.

A distributor of a series may not want to cover the fees of merchandising.

I'm more inclined to believe lost revenues is due to competition moreso than lost sales (which are on the back end). Especially when an executive from TV Tokyo is showing a decline in series airing.

Producers (those who fund a series) are going to be much more picky about titles than ever before, leaving quite a few studios in the red.

Add in the rest of the chaos, and it's no wonder the title states what it does.
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