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Answerman - Why Is Japan's Population Declining?


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Top Gun



Joined: 28 Sep 2007
Posts: 4641
PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2016 9:31 pm Reply with quote
NGK wrote:

Mark my words. It will be Europeans who wished they followed japan's footsteps in dealing with post growth society and transition to Singularity. Europe will be saddled with bunch of deadweights, chaos, strife and natives feeling like they lost their own country.

Well this isn't massively racist or anything...
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BadNewsBlues



Joined: 21 Sep 2014
Posts: 6069
PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2016 9:50 pm Reply with quote
Tuor_of_Gondolin wrote:
Basically, things like Social Security are Ponzi Schemes,


I 'd ask where you got this crack pot theory from but I don't think I'd rather know.

Tuor_of_Gondolin wrote:
Anyway, that's the main reason population-reduction is bad from an economic view. But, what about an *environmental* view? Does anyone *not* think that the world is overpopulated? Because it is.


When the world's population lives in a world where it's up to 11 billion people and not the 7 it currently is along with many of them not being caught up in civil wars, ethnic cleansing, natural disasters, contracting incurable diseases, and other things that wreak havoc on mortality rates. We'll see if the planet is truly over populated.


Tuor_of_Gondolin wrote:
Until we can keep our populations at levels that our resources can sustain,'


Some of these resources aren't all that sustainable though *cough* fossil fuels *cough*

Tuor_of_Gondolin wrote:
And if the Africans would learn not to have kids they can't afford to raise, we'd be well on our way to achieving a sustainable population level on a global scale.


Unless things changed when I wasn't looking Asia is still the most densely populated continent we have on the planet particularly where China and India are concerned. Also when you say "Africans" you mean those living in Africa right? because for them and many others having kids isn't necessarily a choice especially when you factor in things like religion or social beliefs.


NGK wrote:

The western European situation is perfectly summed up here:


And here too
Quote:
spoiler[ You know, I've spent ten years detoxifying this party. It's been a bit like renovating an old, old house, yeah? You can take out a sexist beam here, a callous window there, replace the odd homophobic roof tile. But after a while you realise that this renovation is doomed. Because the foundations are built on what I can only describe as a solid bed of cunts.]


Not everyone speaking out against settling refugees in other countries is doing so because of practicality or logical reasons.


Stuart Smith wrote:
I don't really follow European news but diversity in Japan would only be a bad thing. There's already tension between foreigners in Japan and Japanese.


In part because Japan doesn't take too kindly to those that aren't Japanese, they have a notorious history with this as Mohawk mentioned. Diversity is in no way shape or form bad unless you're a traditional minded person who of course hates change.


NearEasternerJ1 wrote:
Whilst we have debates about America's role or lack thereof in bringing prosperity for "African-Americans", actual African-Americans are the most educated group in America.


Unless google's search engine is broken this designation only applies to black women.
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Aphasial
Exempt from Grammar Rules


Joined: 08 Aug 2010
Posts: 122
Location: San Diego, CA
PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2016 10:10 pm Reply with quote
BadNewsBlues wrote:
Tuor_of_Gondolin wrote:
Basically, things like Social Security are Ponzi Schemes,

I 'd ask where you got this crack pot theory from but I don't think I'd rather know.


Social Security (in the U.S.) is indeed a ponzi scheme. Proceeds paid out in benefits are funded through current contributions, even beyond the issue of active raiding of the SS Trust Fund to fill unrelated current-year budgetary shortfalls which happens from time to time.

This works reasonably enough so long as there are enough young folks to approximately match the folks in retirement. When lifetimes are lengthened, that's more money that needs to come in. When birthrates drop, that's fewer people contributing. Add those together and you have a big problem down the road.
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Paiprince



Joined: 21 Dec 2013
Posts: 593
PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2016 10:26 pm Reply with quote
And then there's the opposite side of the spectrum where you have more kids than you know what to do with doing god knows what in impoverished and/or war-torn countries (Palestine has one of the youngest populations on the planet). You want Japan to be like that?

Let's not even entertain immigration as part of the answer here. As Europe so beautifully exhibited by taking in loads, open-border style, this would just add more to the burden than diminish it.

It's not a simple solution as saying, "make having babies and starting a family more rewarding and affordable" either. There's a lot of factors at work. For example, Japan has reached the highest point in Maslow's Hierarchy of Needs. The average Japanese fills his or her NEED with entertainment and media. What's the point of going through the stress of marrying and raising bratty children when you could opt for blissful complacency with the latest toys and shows? Turning back time to the "good old days" is one way to get the repopulating rear in gear and that's probably the intent the Nationalist sentiment is going for.
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NGK



Joined: 10 Mar 2010
Posts: 244
PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2016 10:36 pm Reply with quote
Top Gun wrote:
NGK wrote:

Mark my words. It will be Europeans who wished they followed japan's footsteps in dealing with post-growth society and transition to Singularity. Europe will be saddled with bunch of deadweights, chaos, strife and natives feeling like they lost their own country.

Well this isn't massively racist or anything...


It may be hard for some to believe, but Japan is actually ahead of the curve. Japan is said to be the first major G7 country to hit post-growth economically and socially, they got everything what they need, and they've been dealing with it for 25 years. They are ready once we hit the disruptive (if not destructive) era of "singularity". Japan usually likes to be compared to European countries (and not USA), but they should be wise not to follow EU when attempting to escape post-growth, like letting in a flood of migrants (EU should take a lesson from Australia on how to deal with boat migrants) It is crazy to see what is happening there, and i'm sure Japanese will not tolerate this because the government is actually in tune with the will of the 'kokumin' when it comes to this.

Now back to the other side of the content....

Compare the desires of some EU state government vs the will of the locals, Japan government actually heeds to the will of the people - maintain social cohesion.

And if anyone had any doubts, now the truth comes out. For example, German companies want more cheap labor - that's why Merkel is pushing for more migrants even though the locals don't want it. They believe they can train these people and integrate them for less than it would cost to pay higher wages to a german citizen. For Germans, its easier to import the labor, and that's exactly what this "refugee" push has been for. Its not humanitarian (primarily males age 18-35?).

The people most in control of the first world's finances are scared shitless about lack of population growth. Without a growing population, they can't sustain the kind of profit growth they want to see in their corporations. Without growth, the ponzi scheme collapses, and they stand to lose the most, especially if said collapse results in major civic unrest. That's why they're willing to risk importing a toxic population group from a culture completely at odds with host country. They think they can absorb those people, assimilate them, but they know that if they just live with below replacement birth rates the bottom _will_ drop out.


Last edited by NGK on Mon Oct 17, 2016 10:51 pm; edited 2 times in total
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Blood-
Bargain Hunter



Joined: 07 Mar 2009
Posts: 23905
PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2016 10:41 pm Reply with quote
So, Japan's population is decreasing, eh? Look, tell ya what I'm willing to do. If the Japanese government will pay my way and give me an incredibly generous stipend, I am prepared to breed with the comelier Japanese frauleins. I'm 6 foot 6, so beyond merely saving the population from a disastrous decline, I'd be injecting some much needed verticality into the gene pool.

Please - no need to thank me.
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BadNewsBlues



Joined: 21 Sep 2014
Posts: 6069
PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2016 10:42 pm Reply with quote
Aphasial wrote:


Social Security (in the U.S.) is indeed a ponzi scheme. Proceeds paid out in benefits are funded through current contributions, even beyond the issue of active raiding of the SS Trust Fund to fill unrelated current-year budgetary shortfalls which happens from time to time.

This works reasonably enough so long as there are enough young folks to approximately match the folks in retirement. When lifetimes are lengthened, that's more money that needs to come in. When birthrates drop, that's fewer people contributing. Add those together and you have a big problem down the road.


Ponzi's schemes are designed to enrich the people setting it up by, scamming people out of their own money, money that most will never ever get back.....last I checked SS isn't designed like this. If that were truly the case our Republicans wouldn't be essentially trying to kill it considering they like the idea of people enriching themselves through shady means.

NGK wrote:
Compare the desires of some EU state government vs the will of the locals, Japan government actually heeds to the will of the people - maintain social cohesion.


Using tacky, outdated, and somewhat impractical ideas. Which feed into problematic perceptions of certain groups?

If there's one thing Japan is not it's progressive and that's not a good thing especially when it comes to women, gays,transsexuals, foreigners, and the mentally handicapped.


Last edited by BadNewsBlues on Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:06 pm; edited 6 times in total
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Paiprince



Joined: 21 Dec 2013
Posts: 593
PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2016 10:44 pm Reply with quote
Blood- wrote:
So, Japan's population is decreasing, eh? Look, tell ya what I'm willing to do. If the Japanese government will pay my way and give me an incredibly generous stipend, I am prepared to breed with the comelier Japanese frauleins. I'm 6 foot 6, so beyond merely saving the population from a disastrous decline, I'd be injecting some much needed verticality into the gene pool.

Please - no need to thank me.


They want you to spend or invest in their economy, not spend your sperm into their women.

Regardless, the idea that certain people here should turn Japan into a multi kulti "melting pot" as a way of "atoning for their past" is utter absurdity to put it lightly. Japan is Japan. They have their identity and way of life. They can fix it without having to artificially transplant outsiders into their lives.
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Blood-
Bargain Hunter



Joined: 07 Mar 2009
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PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2016 10:56 pm Reply with quote
Switching to more serious mode here, I agree that increased immigration is simply not an option for Japan unless attitudes there undergo a revolutionary change. History is destiny. Japan is one of the most homogenous countries in the world owing to its splendid isolation for most of its past.

I live in Canada, a country that is pretty successful in integrating immigrants. Immigration is the only reason our population has not declined. But we are pretty savvy about who we take in. Yes, we do take in refugees, but when it comes to immigration, we generally only let in people who have cash or skills.
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Paiprince



Joined: 21 Dec 2013
Posts: 593
PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:06 pm Reply with quote
BadNewsBlues wrote:

Using tacky, outdated, and somewhat sexist/racist ideas? Which feed into problematic perceptions of certain groups?

If there's one Japan is not it's progressive and that's not a good thing especially when it comes to women, gays,transsexuals, foreigners, and the mentally handicapped.


And look where oh so "progressive" and "tolerant" Western Europe is heading towards. The old adage of The way to ruin is paved with good intentions couldn't be any truer to what is happening over there.

I dunno about you, but I prefer stability and identity over constant chaos and turnovers neo-libs seem to want to shove into everyone's throats.
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Jonny Mendes



Joined: 17 Oct 2014
Posts: 997
Location: Europe
PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:08 pm Reply with quote
Is he population decline really that bad of a thing?
Japan is a small island country with very few places were urban grow is possible, 73 percent of Japan is forested, mountainous, and unsuitable for agricultural, industrial, or residential use.
And we are talking in 127 milion people living in that small space and with limited resources. A smaller population could make the country's crowded metropolitan areas more livable.

Quote:

From the http://fortune.com

Former chairwoman of the FDIC Sheila Bair on Monday took on the topic of shrinking populations: in developed countries, she says, they pose a huge economic opportunity.

Long-term demographic trends in developed countries that indicate shrinking populations will produce “short-term issues” like large elderly populations being forced to depend on a smaller working-age cohort, she said. But the problems will “level out over time,” especially with the aid of technology.

Smaller populations could “improve the quality of life” and produce a “smaller labor force that’s better paid” since a smaller available workforce will put a premium on labor, she said. A smaller population will also reduce humans’ environmental footprints. “Over the long term, a shrinking population is a positive.”


There are 7.4 billion people in the world with 11.2 billion expect in the year 2100.
The planet can't survive with this pressure. Is better to have a natural decline of population until a natural equilibrium is reached.

From what i read the plan in Japan is using technology to address the labor shortage, while applying measures to incentive the increasing Japanese fertility rates from the current level of 1.4 to 1.8, eventually stabilizing the population at 100,000,000. Some of the measures are new Child Care and Family Care Leave Law and putting incentives for more woman's in the work force.


Last edited by Jonny Mendes on Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:18 pm; edited 1 time in total
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BadNewsBlues



Joined: 21 Sep 2014
Posts: 6069
PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:11 pm Reply with quote
Paiprince wrote:
And look where oh so "progressive" and "tolerant" Western Europe is heading towards.


I don't think I mentioned anything about Europe East or West being progressive as parts of it really aren't. The stupidity that was Brexit is perfectly good example of that.


Last edited by BadNewsBlues on Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:14 pm; edited 1 time in total
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Paiprince



Joined: 21 Dec 2013
Posts: 593
PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:13 pm Reply with quote
Jonny Mendes wrote:
Is he population decline really that bad of a thing?
Japan is a small island country with very few places were urban grow is possible, 73 percent of Japan is forested, mountainous, and unsuitable for agricultural, industrial, or residential use.
And we are talking in 127 milion people living in that small space and with limited resources. A smaller population could make the country's crowded metropolitan areas more livable.

Quote:

From the http://fortune.com

Former chairwoman of the FDIC Sheila Bair on Monday took on the topic of shrinking populations: in developed countries, she says, they pose a huge economic opportunity.

Long-term demographic trends in developed countries that indicate shrinking populations will produce “short-term issues” like large elderly populations being forced to depend on a smaller working-age cohort, she said. But the problems will “level out over time,” especially with the aid of technology.

Smaller populations could “improve the quality of life” and produce a “smaller labor force that’s better paid” since a smaller available workforce will put a premium on labor, she said. A smaller population will also reduce humans’ environmental footprints. “Over the long term, a shrinking population is a positive.”


There are 7.4 billion people in the world with 11.2 billion expect in the year 2100.
The planet can't survive with this pressure. Is better to have a natural decline of population until a natural equilibrium is reached.


According to some people, that doesn't apply to the poor and downtrodden brown people and their need to uncontrollably pop babies left and right precedes the need for Whites and Japanese (because they're "honorary whites") to preserve their own. It is the latter's obligation to culturally and demographically suicide themselves because of the deeds of dead men remain to be a burden and can only be forgiven through immigration.

BadNewsBlues wrote:
Paiprince wrote:
And look where oh so "progressive" and "tolerant" Western Europe is heading towards.


I don't think I mentioned anything about Europe East or West being progressive as they're most definitely not. Between the Brexit stupidity and Putin's stance on gays.


If you don't think prog havens like Sweden as progressive then I wonder which case study falls under your definition of progressive. Latin America?
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BadNewsBlues



Joined: 21 Sep 2014
Posts: 6069
PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:17 pm Reply with quote
Paiprince wrote:


If you don't think prog havens like Sweden as progressive then I wonder which case study falls under you definition of progressive. Latin America?


....Latin America is neither a country nor continent though. Did you mean South/Central America?
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Paiprince



Joined: 21 Dec 2013
Posts: 593
PostPosted: Mon Oct 17, 2016 11:21 pm Reply with quote
BadNewsBlues wrote:
Paiprince wrote:


If you don't think prog havens like Sweden as progressive then I wonder which case study falls under you definition of progressive. Latin America?


....Latin America is neither a country nor continent though. Did you mean South/Central America?


You're arguing semantics here. Come on, you should know where I was going at. But yes, assuming this region falls under your umbrella of progressive, give me reasons why you deem so.
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