Forum - View topicSPIRITED AWAY... Guess the B.O.?
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Tenchi
 Posts: 4534 Location: Ottawa... now I'm an ex-Anglo Montrealer. |
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Hmm, I saw my first TV commercial for Spirited Away, though it wasn't on local Montreal TV, it was on one of the east coast American network affiliates from Boston which I can watch on Bell ExpressVu.
So, anyone want to play "Guess the B.O." (box office, not body odour)? Say the total American box office take by the end of October? I suggest doing it "pool" style, with a buffer of $500 000, though this wouldn't be an actual pool, since I don't think we are allowed to gamble real money on this board. The only "prize" is the privilege of being right, which is a great prize, since you can rub your prescience in people's faces. My guess, based on the estimated number of theatres and the fact that, from the TV commercial I've seen, Disney isn't selling this film to kids (not that late September/early October is the best time of year to market a kids film) would be $24.5 million, though I would certainly like to see it make much more. EDIT: By "buffer of $500 000", I mean guess the box office to within .5 million either way, which means my estimate can be considered "correct" between $24 and 25 million. |
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cookie
Former ANN Editor in Chief
 Posts: 2460 Location: Do not contact me for support. |
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It opens September 20th, and expands to a (unknown?) number of cities on the 4th of October. $100k on its opening night. $350k on its opening weekend. $5.0m by the end of October. PS: I sure hope i'm wrong. ;) [EDIT](slight edit downward on the first two numbers, once i realized Mononoke had $31k/theater for the WEEKEND, not for opening night. $5.0m is unchanged.)[/EDIT] Last edited by cookie on Fri Sep 13, 2002 11:16 am; edited 1 time in total |
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Tenchi
Posts: 4534 Location: Ottawa... now I'm an ex-Anglo Montrealer. |
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Well, I saw the commercials again, on the Boston ABC and NBC affiliates, so I'm quite optimistic. While, for films in limited release, I don't think TV advertising makes all that much a difference, because the sort of person who sees a limited release or art house circuit film doesn't tend to rely on TV commercials to sway his/her opinion as to whether or not to see a movie, at least this time the Disney "hatas" will have to find something else to blame besides the lack of advertising if it flops.
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Emerje
 Posts: 7403 Location: Maine |
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I'm going to be a bit more hopeful and say $9.5million seeing as how Mononoke only managed to gross about 1.5 or so (don't remember the official amout, I think that's what the WSJ said). I'm gonig with the higher simply because it seems like Disney is puting a bit more effort into it than with Mononoke and may actually be trying to cash in on this "anime thing" rather than imitate it.
Emerje |
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GATSU
Posts: 15550 |
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Tenchi: Actually, from what I hear, movie advertising is the only effective advertising, which is why studios will spend more money on it than other corporations on other products.
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Tenchi
Posts: 4534 Location: Ottawa... now I'm an ex-Anglo Montrealer. |
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I've heard an alternate theory, that movie advertising is really just for the "fence sitters" who haven't already decided from reading about a movie whether or not they want to see it and that it's only effective for films in genres the fence sitters already like. But, for some films, especially foreign films the general public isn't likely to know about prior to it playing in their town, there'd be a much higher number of fence sitters, I suppose.
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Cassandra
 Posts: 1356 Location: Birdsboro, PA |
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According to http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/1999/MONON.html, Mononoke grossed $2,374,107 total in the US with $144,446 on opening weekend (8 theaters). And that didn't have any sort of advertising from what I remember.
So, my guess for Spirited Away? I'll be generous and say $500,000 on opening weekend since it's opening in more theaters than Mononoke did. Theatrical run? I would say it'll clear at least $5million. More theaters, more advertising (though I, personally, have not seen any TV commercials for it)...and it's marketed to a different audience. |
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Aya Reiko
 Posts: 166 Location: Nowhere and Somewhere |
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$1 mil.
It has less going for it that PM, so I seriously doubt it'll do more business. |
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Judau
 Posts: 247 Location: Boston, MA |
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I would say between 4 and 7 million, total. Even though, you can not say which is better, Princess Mononoke or Spirited Away, everybody here knows that is not the case (plus, who would want to choose?!). So, considering the overwhelming anime increase, everywhere, and the heightened advertising campaigne, it will DEFINETELY beat PM in the box office...
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GATSU
Posts: 15550 |
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I side with people who think Princess Mononoke was the wrong Ghibli film to put in theaters first. (They should've showed Totoro or Laputa.) Spirited Away's more kid-friendly, but it really pushes the PG rating with some of the blood and the vomit scenes. I would say if Disney really wants to make money, they better not wait to give it a wide release when the next LOTR and Star Trek movies come out. The summer movies are gone, and it looks like Spirited Away will be the only animated film for the fall/winter season, excluding the new Adam Sandler movie 8 Crazy Nights; but it's PG 13, so it'll help pave the market for mature(and I use the term loosely with Sandler) animated films. Though I think the real question is if it's successful, will this encourage other movie studios to put out dub-only anime, or will they actually bother releasing bilingual discs?
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Tenchi
Posts: 4534 Location: Ottawa... now I'm an ex-Anglo Montrealer. |
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You're forgetting Disney's own Treasure Planet, which is scheduled for a November 27th release.
I don't see why the DVD release would be any different from the other big studio-released anime shown theatrically in limited release over the past few years... all the DVDs were bilingual, or multilingual. |
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GATSU
Posts: 15550 |
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Tenchi: Treasure Planet? Don't you mean Laputa 2?
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Gai Super Napalm
 Posts: 148 Location: Hoboken, NJ |
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Sen To was better than Mononoke. |
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Tenchi
Posts: 4534 Location: Ottawa... now I'm an ex-Anglo Montrealer. |
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Damnit! Didn't you read the Disney Hating Fanboy's Handbook 2002 ? You're supposed to claim it's a rip-off of Captain Harlock! j/k But, seriously, how's it similar to Laputa? It's just Treasure Island in space. Maybe they'll have a few Miyazaki "homage shots" (as Slim Shinji calls it; I prefer to use the term "quoting"), but that in itself does not a rip-off make. |
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Dan42
Chief Encyclopedist
 Posts: 3791 Location: Montreal |
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From what I can tell on nausicaa.net, there are at least 20 theatres that will screen Spirited Away on September 20. Since after that it expands to a "wide release"... I don't know how exactly big a release they intend to make of it, but the number of theatres in the "wide release" has to be significantly higher than the number of theatres in the opening week. And Disney looks like they're going to release it like a real movie. And there's the whole month of October to accumulate box office. So I'm going to be optimistic about it and say $18.5 million by the end of October.
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