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Forum - View topicNEWS: Comic Market 104 Draws 260,000 Attendees Across 2 Days
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Kougeru
 Posts: 5556 |
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This makes me sad since these numbers were passed way back in 1989 originally. They deserve so much more.
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Ryujin99
 Posts: 198 |
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TL;DR yes, it's sad to compare to where things used to be, but I think there's plenty or reason to hope. Long Version: While I see where you're coming from, personally I think there's plenty of reason for hope still. The article gives some pretty important context - specifically that attendance is counted as the sum of all the day-by-day attendance rather than a count of the total number of unique visitors. I would imagine that a huge percentage, if not a significant majority, of unique attendees attend multiple days of the event and that a still large percentage of unique attendees show up for all the days of the event. My point being with all this is that, given the way overall attendance is tabulated, it's probably best to compare the daily attendance numbers of current events to the daily attendance numbers of previous events. For the most recent event, the total attendance was 260k, but it doesn't look like the article includes the daily attendance numbers, so I'll just use the average of 260k / 2 = roughly 130k per day. Now yes, that's still only in the ballpark of 2/3 the daily attendance numbers of Comiket 97, which had 180-190k per day, but it still paints a much better picture than 260k vs. 750k does. 130k per day is also a lot less than the daily record of 210k, but I really don't think we should be comparing the numbers to that record Also... just... so much has changed in the world over the last 4-5 years, so... at least in my opinion, while it is more than a bit sad to see numbers so much lower now than they were 5-6 years ago... what we really should be doing is comparing today's numbers to more recent performance. On which note... 130k per day is fairly comparable to the numbers from last December of 140k on day 1 and 130k on day 2... and the weather this time around sounds like it was pretty brutal, so that alone could probably explain why attendance went down slightly compared to last time. 260k is also just about exactly what it was last summer (based on a bit of internet searching). So if we compare Comiket 104 to the past two events... while the numbers are definitely stagnant, I would argue that things really aren't all gloom and doom. These sorts of events take time to build, and I'm sure they'll take time to rebuild to something resembling their former glory days in the years before COVID. On which note... if we compare current numbers to the COVID times, attendance is up by anywhere from 50% (Dec. 2022) to a bit more than 100% (Dec. 2021). In that respect, even if we (likely correctly) assume that attendance restrictions depressed numbers more than COVID would have on it's own, it's still a remarkable recovery I think. Now... granted. Having said all this, I have, thus far, mostly hand-waived the shorter length of the more recent events as compared to the 3 and 4 day events of years' past. But... for one thing, from a bit of trawling through older articles (and also Wikipedia), it looks like Comiket had only just gotten to the point of having 4 day events in 2019. It was all 3 day events (for the regular August + December events at least) for about 20 years before that - also it looks like 260k attendees wasn't reached or passed until the August 1996 event... though most events going all the way back to 1990 were in the 200-250k range. It wasn't until 3 day events had been the established norm for a few years that we started seeing Comiket numbers over 500k and even once 500k+ became the norm, it took more than 10 more years of that before the event expanded (all too briefly) from 3 days to 4. This most recent event, and the two before it, look like they're pretty much on par with where things were in the late 90s right before the event expanded to 3 days instead of 2. If this year's December event maintains, much less surpasses, the current attendance level, then I could easily see next year's events going back to 3 days again. That alone would put 500k total attendees within pretty easy striking range assuming 130-140k attendees per day, which will likely draw even more artists and attendees back to the events in 2026. I think it's entirely possible that within the next 1-3 years, we could start seeing both 3 day events again as well as attendance numbers like those seen in the later 2010s. If I wanted to be really optimistic, I could even see a reasonably likely path forward that puts Comiket on track to start up with 4 day events again by the time 2030 rolls around. Sure, that might sound like a long time, but it'd still be a much faster rate of growth than the path that led the event to it's first rounds of 4-day events in 2019 - that was a more than 40 year journey, after all. Returning to that high point within about 10 years of a global catastrophe like COVID would be nothing short of remarkable if you ask me. Now... with all this being said... there are, of course, also other factors at play. As more time passes, ever more and more doujinshi become available for legal purchase in e-book formats - a trend that I can only imagine COVID accelerated by quite a bit. And on top of that, it seems just about easier than it's ever been to order the physical copies of various doujinshi online. So as much as I think it's possible that we could see a return to the heyday of the late '10s within the next few years, I could also see a continuation of the trend away from physical media spoiler[(though with how much so many corporations have been f'ing up in recent years, I could also see that pendulum start to swing the other direction within the same time span... only time will tell)]. In the end... I certainly won't say "don't worry at all." As great as it's recovery has been since 2020, the fact remains that the past few Comiket events are still a long ways off from where they were in 2019, 2009, or even 1999! But I do think there's plenty of reason to believe that things will continue to improve. |
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musouka
Posts: 718 |
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I think it’s also important to keep in mind that female doujinka have also begun gravitating towards smaller, fandom-centric events, as opposed to big, crowded (and hot) tent poles like Comiket.
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tsog
Posts: 250 |
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Comiket also require ticket/wristband to enter now. Which attracts more people, free or paid?
I went during summer once when it was still free but frankly IDK if I want to go through that heat and crowd again. Melonbooks has plenty of circle's goods afterward (might take a few weeks though), and often you don't even know if it's the creator sitting behind the table or just a friend helping out. I might go again, but definitely going to avoid waiting in long lines for the well known circles. Just walk around, take in the atmosphere, and hit the commercial booths. |
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Meongantuk
 Posts: 358 |
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They don't really avoid bigger events considering "June Bride Fes" event last June has almost as many participants as this Comiket (both has around 23k circles). But it is true that female artists/con-goers prefer smaller more specific only events nowadays. Back when there were more female artists in comiket, Comiket never heard their feedback and complains (sexual harassment, waiting lines, circle placements, amount of circles), especially post 2010s-olympic/covid era where Comiket organizer feels increasingly male otaku pandering+alienating the women. Plus around the same time there are other doujin events organizers who organizes events that cater to the women more, ones that actually fix Comiket's long time problems. So it's no wonder they just left Comiket all together, there isn't much merit for them to stay in Comiket unless you're big enough artist that cater to multiple demographics or not doing BL/joseimuke specific fandoms. As much as people refuse to acknowledge it, these female artists do contribute to Comiket's growth, and their departure is also one of the reason why Comiket's number declining. |
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