Forum - View topicAnswerman - How Important Are Hit Anime Series?
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dtm42
Posts: 14084 Location: currently stalking my waifu |
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So which is it, Justin? Has the industry really changed that much in four years? |
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AnimeLordLuis
 Posts: 1626 Location: The Borderlands of Pandora |
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Well only time will tell if the Anime industry will end or change drastically because of another Anime bubble burst however the contributing factor to the big burst won't be because of the American market it will most likely be because there are TOO many Anime series being made and very few if any are big enough hits.
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Chipp12
Posts: 311 |
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There's this show called Togainu no Chi that really fits this description. It was released on a DVD-Box much later instead of the single volume releases that were cancelled. Even Nitroplus, the company that produced the original game and was on production committee is embarrassed to mention this failure adaptation in their list of works. 
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jymmy
 Posts: 1244 |
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Japanese anime fans, and they won't buy any more if you lower the price point, at least not enough to make up for the lower revenue per unit sold. |
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leafy sea dragon
 Posts: 7163 Location: Another Kingdom |
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I'd say the source material's medium is irrelevant compared to the story depicted in the source material itself. There's no doubt that Sword Art Online was successful internationally, for instance, and that's because the concept of MMOs is understood worldwide. It's simply that light novels, as a category of literature, are given low priority in translating. I don't know how well they sell in English, for one, but I do know they require a monumental amount of translation per book than a manga.
I think China is currently in a phase of excitement, as only recently has media from other countries been made easily available (most recently with video game systems being legal to import in). So the people, getting to see and consume all this stuff publicly, are lapping up everything they can get their hands on. I guarantee that after the novelty and exoticness has passed, the Chinese people who are madly consuming this stuff will calm down. I think it'll still be a major market due to its population, but I think the number of fans of foreign media will decrease, and these fans will consume about as much as fans from any other country.
I thought it'd be the bootleggers who traditionally become the winners pre-streaming.
Now, is it any good? No matter where a TV show is made, that's what determines if it's a success or not. And timing. Maybe it will be a success because it came first.
Whether an industry can bounce back from a bubble stronger or can bounce back at all happens on a case-by-case basis. The circumstances for the Video Game Crash of 1984 was completely different than what people suspect is going on right now with anime. The current anime landscape is caught in bidding wars, whereas the Video Game Crash of 1984 was caused by a single company's failure to control its quality (Atari). The Video Game Crash of 1984 also permanently stunted every company in video gaming at that time (except for EA); the crash was saved by Nintendo, a company that had almost no presence in the home console market until after the crash (it was almost completely an arcade game company prior). The only thing the two situations have in common is oversaturation, the industries collectively producing more than the established audiences want. It could become like the Comic Book Crash of 1996: There was no company that popped up to save the business. Warner Bros. bought DC, and Marvel was bought and sold by various companies until eventually going to Disney. Image became niche, and Valiant was completely destroyed. Every comic book distributor folded except Diamond. Most importantly, the public image comic books had went from something reasonably mainstream and popular with kids to a geek and nerd hobby, and it stayed this way, trying desperately to survive, until superhero movies became popular with Hollywood. Or it could be like the railroad bubble that happened in the United States and the United Kingdom in the mid-19th century: With large open lands, plenty of startup railroad companies looking for investors, and a lot of people with more money than they could understand, railways were laid down everywhere people could think of, and every town anyone could find, no matter how small, got train stations. Problem is that these tracks were useless if the train companies themselves weren't interested in going there. When the bubble burst, not only did the railroad companies implode, but that their investors did too caused a global economic crash. Or it could just be like the Dot-Com Bubble of the early 00's: Those businesses that poured in a lot of money into something pretty useless went under, but everyone else was unharmed. In any case, my point is that bubbles have quite varying effects in what happens afterward. Every bubble is different in how they build up, how they burst, and how other people feel that burst. |
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mangamuscle
Posts: 2658 Location: Mexico |
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When I said "anime market crash in this century" I was referencing the series of pre-2010 events which changed the anime market landscape in anglo america, which much like how the atari crash was brought by poor business decisions (i.e. paying too much money for licenses that would not generate that much profit). I think my comment was obvious because I still believe there will be no bubble burst, people are scared because streaming costs went from an afterthought to a lot of money in a few years, but for most companies this is a sustainable model. Mismanaged companies go out even in the middle of a growth burst *cough* manglobe *cough* but that does not mean that "the end is near, repent of your sins" even if some well known distributor changes from anime to sentai shows (much like animeigo went from anime to samurai films) would not mean the start of the end. |
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DerekL1963
 Subscriber Posts: 1117 Location: Puget Sound |
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o.0 Crunchy can't summon a bunch of new subscribers (the existing ones will only tolerate so much of an increase per annum, and ad rates aren't going up noticeably). Funi can take a bigger hit because they have their disk business, but that well is only so deep. Netflix and the other biggies have deeper pockets, but they're only going to pay so much to serve a niche market before shrugging their shoulders and dropping out. So who exactly is ever increasing licensing costs sustainable for? |
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GATSU
Posts: 15378 |
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leafy:
The legit streamers in China are probably in kahoots with the pirates. I'm guessing it's a bizarro Crunchyroll over there, basically, where they never really 'went legit', but try to sound like it on paper. As for China making its own anime, you need actual drawing experience and education to do stuff not involving outsourcing, not just quasi-slave labor. |
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mangamuscle
Posts: 2658 Location: Mexico |
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Huh!? They can't? It is no secret that anime attracts teens/young adults, unlike computer games/comics (where the average age is in the thirties and increasing) so it is easy for new blood to make the jump from adult swim to a crunchy (you can get it for free for starters).
The very fact that netflix has gotten into the anime market means it is no longer a niche market, if they are putting money into it is because there is plenty of interest atm (just because some people do not like zombie series does not mean they are niche, same goes for anime) and the trend is for increase in market share. So I do not see them dropping out any time soon, quite the opposite, I see by the end of this year netflix getting ALL the shows that funimation used to get. Even with increasing prices, anime shows are a steal if you compare them to the cost nowadays of live action series. |
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WingKing
Posts: 617 |
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Just for fun, I took a look at the list of late-night anime that aired from the Fall 2014 season through the Summer 2015 season (since it's the late-night anime where the business model depends on DVD/BD sales), and from those four seasons I only found two TV shows that didn't get a DVD or BD release. One was Nanoha Vivid, and as someone else noted there's most likely some kind of internal issue going on there, because the final recap episode ended with a plug for the upcoming DVD/BD releases of the show, but it's never even been made available for pre-order. Nanoha's a reasonably popular franchise and a safe seller, so there's no reason for a planned DVD/BD release to get cancelled like that unless there's something that's actively preventing them from releasing the discs. The other TV series from that 12-month window that hasn't been released is Vampire Holmes, and that one was complete shite - that's a show I could definitely see the producers opting to quietly bury. |
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DerekL1963
Subscriber Posts: 1117 Location: Puget Sound |
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Do you actually understand what the word summon means? That it's easy for new blood to make the leap (though they aren't) doesn't mean that Crunchy can make it happen on demand.
Huh? Netflix puts money into a lot of niches - that doesn't make them not niches. It makes them niches big enough to pay attention to. (And frankly, the otaku are about the last sizeable niche there is. And we're pretty small all things considered.) They're getting into the anime market because it's a decent sized niche that everyone else is getting into as well. None of the Big Three streamers are going to let any of the others have a niche to themselves if they can help it. That's why many people believe there's a bubble in streaming (not just in anime), the big three are in a lockstep arms race that's slowly spiraling out of control.
If the price goes higher than the returns warrant, they'll drop out in a heartbeat. It doesn't matter how much something costs, what matters is whether that something can be bought and resold at a profit. |
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leafy sea dragon
Posts: 7163 Location: Another Kingdom |
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I definitely hope there is no bubble. Bubbles burst when key figures are unaware there is one. If key figures know, they will take steps to either prevent it from bursting or at least let it deflate quietly. (As for what Atari did, most of its mistakes were from the guy running Atari thinking that Atari would be bigger than the Beatles or something. Not only did Atari pay huge amounts for licensed games that flopped, it did ridiculous stuff like produce more copies of Pac-Man than they had sold Atari 5200s up to that point, creating the infamous buried cartridges event.)
Yeah, that situation sounds more like the China I know. And well, people in India got good at computer programming through years of them serving as cheap tech support for other English-speaking countries. If decades of doing outsourced animation (and everything else, for that matter) does not result in them learning anything, then it's more a refusal to learn than a lack of opportunity. Then again, Korea is a country for frequently outsourced animation. I've watched Korean animation. Most of it is animated well, but the writing is horrible (which is odd because their live action television is fine, if samey-samey). |
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fuuma_monou
 Posts: 1826 Location: Quezon City, Philippines |
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I suspect animation writers get paid a fraction of their live-action counterparts' salary, if the U.S. is anything to go by. |
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mangamuscle
Posts: 2658 Location: Mexico |
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Summon as in an instantaneous effect? Do you really believe price hikes are instantaneous? At the fastest they increase from season to season, but it could also happen yearly and as I said before, every year there is new blood entering the market by sheer virtue of youngsters slowly outgrowing western animation and looking for something else, some of them will wander of towards anime because it is damn easy (I will not bother you with my stories of how hard was to watch anime back in the day).
Niche is samurai films or films with muscular females, the mainstream is composed of a bunch of niches, but that does not mean horror is not a niche that is also part of the mainstream and so is anime atm.
This is sheer FUD at worst, or part of a campaign by said companies to try to keep prices down at best.
If the owners of said company are so STUPID for such obvious scenario to happen, good riddance, their company will go bankrupt and will be substituted in a jiffy by another one, since there are no inventories to drag the market down in the streaming business, only legal rights that will be liquidated with said company. |
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DerekL1963
Subscriber Posts: 1117 Location: Puget Sound |
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*Sigh* Yes, every year there is new blood entering the market. And every year there is old blood leaving the market. Crunchyroll cannot control or significantly alter either rate - and as license fees increase, their costs increase regardless of either rate. And don't try and impress me with your age, when I started watching what anime was available in the US, home VCR's were still playthings of the well off.
0.o As with 'summon', you don't really understand what 'niche' means do you? And with that, further attempts at discussion are obviously pointless. |
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