Anime's 3-Episode Rule: Is It Still Valid?

Generally speaking, certain rules and tropes in anime are somewhat universally agreed upon: In romance anime with multiple love interests, the childhood friend will likely not get together with the main character; or on the lewder side, if the main character falls toward his female counterpart, you can bet your house his hand will “accidentally” land on her chest with almost surgical precision. But one particular rule in the anime community is directed at the viewer and their viewing habits: The 3-Episode Rule.

There are two widely acknowledged definitions of this rule. The more common iteration is that viewers decide after the first three episodes of any given anime whether they like the show and will keep watching or drop it altogether. Another idea of the rule switches its perspective, stating that any show needs three episodes to hit its stride. Whatever your idea of the 3-Episode Rule or whether you even adhere to it, there seems to be something definitive and absolute about this cutoff mark. Even streaming giant Crunchyroll acknowledged the rule's existence in a video from 2021, which looks at viewer retention rates per episode: In 2018, the most significant drop-off in viewer retention happened after episodes two and three, making the 3-Episode Rule (consciously or not) a tangible, actually existing thing in the community.

Considering the flood of new shows every season, the 3-Episode Rule is a helpful filter. Its fluidity allows it to be tailored to the individual preferences of each viewer and helps them decide which shows to watch each season. But is the rule really the all-encompassing guide it seems to be, or have recent anime trends begun tearing down its validity? Let's take a look at a few examples in historical and current anime shows to verify, once and for all, what the 3-Episode Rule does for us.

Warning: Spoilers ahead!

One of the all-time classic examples of the 3-Episode Rule in full effect is Puella Magi Madoka Magica. While the show's opening scene immediately grabs your attention and emphasizes that we are heading toward some sort of destruction, the underlying mystery is, at best, only hinted at during the first two episodes. But then episode three's finale rolls out. Next to making viewers at the time (figuratively) and characters (literally) lose their heads, it makes abundantly clear what kind of show Madoka Magica actually is. The moment of Mami's death marks the end of any pretense PMMM might have had as its cutesy shōjo vibes during the first episodes steers toward a darker, downright horrific direction. It's a perfect example of a show needing three episodes to hit its stride.

Another variation of the 3-Episode Rule fits into the general structure of Rascal Does Not Dream of Bunny Girl Senpai. While the show's title misled me into thinking that we'd get treated to the sight of plenty of cute girls in bunny costumes, the actual show has very few bunny girls in it. Instead, in the first three episodes, we're getting treated to an arc that might have worked as a stand-alone movie. It is chock-full of emotion, from introducing the leading pair of protagonists to the supernatural mystery arising, culminating in the climax and resolution of the conflict in the third episode. Having those first three episodes work as a self-contained story gives every viewer a concrete idea of the formula the Rascal Does Not Dream series employs in each arc.

Whether you like the concept of the show or not – you will undoubtedly be sure of it after episode three. Unfortunately, a strong start does not necessarily lead to a strong finish. Shows like Wonder Egg Priority and DARLING in the FRANXX will forever live in infamy due to this. While the first three episodes generated a tremendous amount of hype during their original runtimes in 2021 and 2018, the endings were controversial, to say the least. Herein lies the problem of the 3-Episode Rule: While an impressive beginning is essential to grab viewer attention, a well-thought-out and conclusive ending might be even more valuable to the legacy of a show. And while the first episodes indicate the overall quality, there is no guarantee it will also stick its landing.

The inverse can also hold true. A slow start does not immediately lead to an inherently lousy show. Take another all- time classic, for example: Cowboy Bebop. While the show is universally acclaimed and firmly cemented as a must-watch anime, its first three episodes do little to accomplish this sentiment. Instead, the overarching plot kicks off only after the third episode – so by strictly following the 3-Episode Rule, you would have missed out on one of the most beloved anime this medium has to offer. A more modern example of having a calmer start is Demon Slayer, which – while having a decent first three episodes – reached its unprecedented levels of hype only in episode 19 and kickstarted the show's tendency to break sales records left, right and center.

Disregarding sequel seasons, the Winter 2023 line-up shows a mostly consistent pattern in each show's storytelling. The main gimmick of each series gets introduced almost immediately and spins its narrative from that point forward. The worst (or best, depending on your sentiment towards it) offenders of this trend are naturally anime firmly rooted in the isekai genre, which more or less summarizes their entire plot in just the title alone. Take The Magical Revolution of the Reincarnated Princess and the Genius Young Lady, for example. Besides having the longest name of any show this season, its premise and developments during the first episode are somewhat predictable, albeit well-executed. And just by the fact that it's an isekai, most regular anime watchers will already have pre-filtered the show depending on whether they like the genre itself or not – making the 3-Episode Rule in this specific case more akin to the question of whether the presented gimmick of the show sits well with the audience.

Romance anime like Tomo-chan Is a Girl! or Ayakashi Triangle don't rely on their name but on the transparency of their respective first episodes. The overarching plot gets introduced immediately, and while the execution of these might spring a few surprises here or there, none of these shows need three episodes to introduce their qualities or lack thereof to the audience. The common denominator of all current and recently adapted anime is the almost immediate clarification of each show's charms and shortcomings.

It doesn't help that in the age of social media, getting spoiled by source material readers could ruin any surprises each series might have had in store for the viewer. On the other hand, original anime productions rely slightly more on the 3-Episode Rule in their narrative style, although it's much less prominent than in earlier years. Take last year's Lycoris Recoil, arguably one of the most successful runs out of all original productions in 2022. While it immediately shows us the core concept of cute girls doing their best John Wick impressions, the show fully reveals its hand in the later stages of the season, elevating the series from its initial premise to a much more meaningful and thought-provoking dilemma.

As for original Anime productions, there is one in the current Winter season that tries its best to invoke the 3-Episode-Rule: Giant Beasts of Ars. Structurally speaking, the show does use its first three episodes to introduce us to the world, the characters, and the overarching plot (therefore giving its best to hit its stride after the third episode), but the story itself is too bland, too generic; it doesn't possess an intriguing enough mystery behind it to appeal to anyone who isn't a fantasy enthusiast, and those who are would presumably already know after the first episode and a half whether Giant Beasts of Ars is to their liking. By the time any surprises could be sprung on the viewer, it might just be too late, at least if we're adhering to the 3-Episode-Rule.

Trigun Stampede, on the other hand, is probably the one exception to this season's overall failure of the 3-Episode-Rule, despite it being a remake of the original run in 1998. Fascinatingly enough, its first three episodes manage to be even more interesting than the original run for both First-Timers and fans of Trigun proper. How does a remake of all things achieve this feat? In the case of Trigun Stampede, the show changes its initial episodic formula to the more streamlined, coherent plot of the original Trigun. More importantly, these changes aren't exclusive to the structure, but also to the plot of the first three episodes itself; even characters get entirely changed or swapped out, letting rewatchers anticipate its future changes even more whilst still being engaging to the newcomers. Take notes, producers: This is a remake done right.

Having examined both light novel/manga adaptations and original productions, how does a video game adaptation fare under the lens of the 3-Episode-Rule? Luckily for us, there is one prime contender in this season for closer examination: NieR:Automata Ver 1.1a adapts one of the most discussed game franchises in recent history. While it certainly does a good job of presenting its source material in the medium of Anime, the first few episodes take a contrary approach to Trigun Stampede and keep the plot to a borderline faithful retelling of a certain route in the game. Seeing the story play out almost exactly as it did in the game is a nice treat for everyone who already played the game, but similar to Giant Beasts of Ars, this group already knows beforehand if they want to watch NieR:Automata Ver 1.1a and surely won't decide their future investment in what the anime can offer by Episode 3. Meanwhile, the complicated (to say the least) nature of the game's story itself prevents the anime from actually “hitting its stride” during the first three episodes, making it a tall order for newcomers to the NieR franchise to judge the show at this point.

Taking the historical and current context of the 3-Episode Rule into perspective, it's becoming increasingly clear that it shouldn't be questioned whether the rule is still valid – but if it has ever been. The current influx of shows each season only amplifies the problems with the rule that initially sought to help those who had too much anime to watch in too little time. While it might still serve a purpose as a rough guideline to filter interesting shows initially, the current and most recent seasons indicate a general shift in the structure of shows and how they're advertised in general. Shows like Trigun Stampede are more an exception to this shift than a confirmation that the rule is still valid, and even that show relies on its novelty factor for rewatchers rather than strictly adhering to the 3-Episode-Rule.

With the 3-Episode Rule being basically defunct with its innumerable counter-examples, how do we filter out those bad shows you would rather not waste your time on? The answer to that leads to two things, both of which are as simple as they are benign:… watch each show that catches your interest initially until you either lose interest or prioritize other series that happen to entertain you more. Secondly, while I am aware that getting spoiled on a twist is always a possibility, there is no better place to discuss and find new anime than the community itself: With how big the anime space has become, you are sure to find at least a handful of people who can give you recommendations for your taste, even while the season is still ongoing; YouTubers have even made entire careers out of uploading “Shows to Watch This Season”-lists. The 3-Episode Rule has outlived its usefulness as a guideline – it's time we leave it for good.